Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Senate race voter power, by state

Per-voter power is based on the idea that moving a few votes incrementally moves the probability of the seat’s outcome. Voter power is calculated from poll medians and estimated standard error, and is greatest in states with close margins and states with small populations. States are listed in order of margin, with a running count of Democratic seats if all seats are won at that margin or more favoring Democrats.

Unlike the Presidential voter-power calculations, which are predicated on a knife-edge election, the Senate voter-power calculation is based on the most recent polls as they stand, without adjustment. Even if the Senate is far from the overall 50 D-50 R threshold for control, individual Senators may balk at some proposals by their own party. For example, it is said that five Democratic Senators currently oppose doing away with the legislative filibuster.

Until Election Day, the highest voter-power states will be featured in ActBlue and WinRed sites in the sidebar.

Go here to see the list in order of descending voter power.

State Margin Voter Power D seats
NM Lujan +19.0 0.9 43
CO Hickenlooper +10.0 1.6 44
NH Shaheen +10.0 6.0 45
MN Smith +9.5 2.6 46
MI Peters +7.6 2.6 47
AZ Kelly +5.5 7.9 48
NC Cunningham +3.1 8.9 49
ME Gideon +2.5 63.4 50
GS +2.0 6.9 51
IA Greenfield +2.0 24.6 52
GA Ossoff +1.2 13.7 53
MT Bullock +1.0 100.0 54
SC Graham +2.2 11.4 55
AK Sullivan +3.0 59.8 56
MS Hyde-Smith +3.0 17.5 57
KS Marshall +3.6 13.1 58
TX Cornyn +5.0 1.2 59
KY McConnell +10.4 2.3 60
AL Tuberville +12.1 0.6 61