Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Sep 20: Biden 347 EV (D+5.2% from toss-up), Senate 52 D, 48 R (D+3.7%), House control D+3.0%
Moneyball states: President NV AZ PA, Senate MT KS AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Senate race voter power, by state

Per-voter power is based on the idea that moving a few votes incrementally moves the probability of the seat’s outcome. Voter power is greatest in states with close margins and states with small populations.

Unlike the Presidential voter-power calculations, which are predicated on a knife-edge election, the Senate voter-power calculation is based on the most recent polls as they stand, without adjustment. Even if the Senate is far from the overall 50 D-50 R threshold for control, individual Senators may balk at some proposals by their own party. For example, not all Senators favor doing away with the legislative filibuster.

Until Election Day, the highest voter-power states will be featured in ActBlue and WinRed sites in the sidebar.

State Margin Voter Power
MT Daines +3.0 100.0
KS Marshall +1.0 58.0
AK Sullivan +6.5 48.9
SC Graham +1.0 33.5
ME Gideon +6.6 19.9
IA Greenfield +3.0 18.6
GA Tie +0.0 11.3
MI Peters +4.0 5.1
AZ Kelly +7.5 5.0
NH Shaheen +10.0 4.9
NC Cunningham +3.9 4.6
KY McConnell +12.0 4.0
AL Tuberville +10.0 4.0
MN Smith +8.5 3.0
TX Cornyn +5.0 2.9
GS +9.0 1.7
CO Hickenlooper +9.0 1.6
NM Lujan +19.0 0.9