Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Nov 03: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3% from toss-up), Senate 53 D, 47 R (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Presidential race voter power, by state

The following table quantifies the power of individual voters to alter the overall probability of the Electoral College to be won by either major Presidential candidate. It is based on the jerseyvotes concept developed on this site in 2008.

For the presidency, the calculation is done by shifting all polls by the same amount until the overall aggregate’s median result is a toss-up (i.e. close to 269 to 269 electoral votes). Voter power is then calculated by shifting the outcome in one state by a fixed number of people, and seeing how much the overall win probability is shifted.

Typically, voter power is greatest in tipping-point states that are just enough to be pivotal in getting a candidate over the top. Voter power also tends to be greater in low-population states. This measure of voter power tells you the value of getting out the vote orĀ  registering voters in each state. It helps focus your activism.

State Margin Voter Power
AZ Biden +3.0 100.0
NE-2 Biden +4.5 92.7
NV Biden +6.0 83.0
ME-2 Biden +3.0 78.3
NC Biden +2.0 64.3
PA Biden +5.0 60.0
FL Biden +3.0 53.0
GA Biden +1.5 52.3
IA Trump +1.0 40.5
NH Biden +8.0 39.8
MI Biden +7.5 35.1
WI Biden +8.5 26.6
MN Biden +9.3 15.0
OH Trump +2.8 11.3
TX Trump +2.7 8.8
MT Trump +5.5 5.7
SD Trump +15.0 5.6
WV Trump +20.1 4.5
VT Biden +30.0 4.5
TN Trump +9.0 3.7
AK Trump +7.0 2.4
MS Trump +14.0 1.9
SC Trump +7.5 1.6
VA Biden +12.0 0.3
KS Trump +14.0 0.3
CO Biden +12.0 0.2
UT Trump +10.0 0.1
NM Biden +13.0 0.1
ME Biden +13.0 0.1
NJ Biden +19.4 2e-06
NE-3 Trump +41.5 0.0
NE-1 Trump +21.6 0.0
ME-1 Biden +23.0 0.0
WY Trump +30.5 0.0
WA Biden +23.0 0.0
RI Biden +26.0 0.0
OR Biden +20.0 0.0
OK Trump +22.0 0.0
ND Trump +17.0 0.0
NY Biden +28.0 0.0
NE Trump +15.6 0.0
MO Trump +9.7 0.0
MA Biden +35.0 0.0
MD Biden +33.0 0.0
LA Trump +22.9 0.0
KY Trump +13.5 0.0
IN Trump +10.7 0.0
IL Biden +16.4 0.0
ID Trump +21.6 0.0
HI Biden +34.0 0.0
DE Biden +21.0 0.0
DC Biden +86.8 0.0
CT Biden +25.0 0.0
CA Biden +28.9 0.0
AR Trump +24.5 0.0
AL Trump +19.6 0.0