Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Obama Net Job Approval/Disapproval

This graph shows the net job approval minus job disapproval question for President Barack Obama. Strong changes in this index might be indicative of a wave of public sentiment toward the Democrats or the Republicans.

We draw data from the Huffington Post feed. Our version of the database is here, and is updated regularly using the script, originally written by Ryan Buckley. On any given day, the graph shows the median of the last 3 polls or all polls ending within the previous 21 days, whichever is greater. If the same organization performed multiple polls, then only the most recent poll is used. The rule is implemented using the MATLAB script Obama_timeseries.m.

For display purposes, this graph is downsampled. Its appearance may change from day to day, even when there is no new polling data.