Princeton Election Consortium
Innovations in democracy since 2004
Sep 27: Biden 353 EV (D+5.2% from toss-up), Senate 52 D, 48 R (D+3.7%), House control D+3.6%
Moneyball states: President IA NV AZ, Senate MT KS AK, Legislatures KS TX NC
Moneyball states: President IA NV AZ, Senate MT KS AK, Legislatures KS TX NC
Senate and House 2020
Senate:
View all statesState Margin Voter Power MT Daines +3.0 100.0 KS Marshall +1.0 65.1 AK Sullivan +6.5 53.6 SC Graham +1.0 37.6 ME Gideon +5.1 29.3 IA Greenfield +3.0 22.2
House:
Code on Github
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Democrats (redistricting):
Republicans (redistricting and U.S. Senate):
Democrats (U.S. Senate):
President 2020
About the model
All graphs at once
EV estimator over time:
Meta-margin above toss-up:
Mode (state-by-state) snapshot:
View all statesState Margin Voter Power IA Tie +0.0 100.0 NV Biden +4.0 98.4 AZ Biden +3.0 93.3 AR Trump +2.0 91.4 NC Biden +1.0 83.9 FL Biden +3.0 81.7 PA Biden +5.0 81.6 GA Trump +0.3 81.3 AK Trump +3.6 79.5 NJ Biden +19.0 1.1e-06
Code on Github
Data and outputs
