Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Jul 14: Biden 376 EV (D+6.0% from toss-up), Senate 53 D, 47 R (D+5.6%), House control D+8.0%
Moneyball states: President AK AR IA, Senate MT KS ME, Legislatures KS TX NC

History of the 2004 race

Median EV estimator from 2004 race

Median EV estimator from 2004 race

The rule applied is last 3 polls. In October the rule shifts to last 3 polls and last 7 days of available polls. For a last-3-days rule only, see here.

Notable dates:
June 23 – Fahrenheit 9/11 opens
July 6 – John Edwards added as VP candidate.
July 26 – First day of Democratic National Convention
August 5, 20, 26, and 31 – Swift Boat Veterans for Truth television ads.
August 30 – First day of Republican National Convention
September 30 – First Bush-Kerry debate.
October 8 – Second Bush-Kerry debate.
October 13 – Third and last Bush-Kerry debate.