Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Meta-Margins for control: House D+1.0% Senate R+4.2% Find key elections near you!

History of the 2004 race

Median EV estimator from 2004 race

Median EV estimator from 2004 race

The rule applied is last 3 polls. In October the rule shifts to last 3 polls and last 7 days of available polls. For a last-3-days rule only, see here.

Notable dates:
June 23 – Fahrenheit 9/11 opens
July 6 – John Edwards added as VP candidate.
July 26 – First day of Democratic National Convention
August 5, 20, 26, and 31 – Swift Boat Veterans for Truth television ads.
August 30 – First day of Republican National Convention
September 30 – First Bush-Kerry debate.
October 8 – Second Bush-Kerry debate.
October 13 – Third and last Bush-Kerry debate.