Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

History of the 2004 race

Median EV estimator from 2004 race

Median EV estimator from 2004 race

The rule applied is last 3 polls. In October the rule shifts to last 3 polls and last 7 days of available polls. For a last-3-days rule only, see here.

Notable dates:
June 23 – Fahrenheit 9/11 opens
July 6 – John Edwards added as VP candidate.
July 26 – First day of Democratic National Convention
August 5, 20, 26, and 31 – Swift Boat Veterans for Truth television ads.
August 30 – First day of Republican National Convention
September 30 – First Bush-Kerry debate.
October 8 – Second Bush-Kerry debate.
October 13 – Third and last Bush-Kerry debate.