Princeton Election Consortium

A laboratory for electoral innovation

Aug 13: Biden 357 EV (D+6.1% from toss-up), Senate 52 D, 48 R (D+4.0%), House control D+3.5%
Moneyball states: President AZ NV AR, Senate MT KS AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Today’s Electoral College Map

This map, created using tools at 270ToWin, provides a state-by-state overview of the current polling. States for which we are currently at least 95% confident in the outcome are considered “safe states” and are colored in the darkest color. States for which we are less confident in the outcome are more lightly colored based on the direction in which they are currently leaning (either towards Biden, or towards Trump). States which we currently view as tied are colored in white. Those states which are currently polling for Biden are colored in blue, and those for Trump are colored in red. Because the map indicates probabilities and not margins, a state is intensely shaded when margins are consistent across multiple polls, even when those margins are small.

The number at the top of the map indicates the sum of electoral votes in individual states, giving leaners full credit. Note that this is different from the electoral vote totals given in the banner, which represent the median of all possible outcomes, which number in the quadrillions. The banner therefore does a better job of accounting for uncertainties in an election held today.

Create your own map at 270toWin.com