Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Jul 14: Biden 376 EV (D+6.0% from toss-up), Senate 53 D, 47 R (D+5.6%), House control D+8.0%
Moneyball states: President AK AR IA, Senate MT KS ME, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries Tagged as 'Site News'

It’s alive!

June 19th, 2020, 6:46am by Sam Wang

Detailed explanation to come. Basically, it’s the same as the 2016 calculation – a simple snapshot of polls to give a sharp picture of where the race is on any single day, to allow optimization of resource allocation. The November prediction (red zone, one-sigma; yellow zone, two-sigma or 95% confidence band) comes from estimating the […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President · Site News

Election tracking 2020, Part 2: The U.S. Senate

June 17th, 2020, 8:42pm by Sam Wang

Close watchers of politics sense that conditions are turning against Senate Republicans. Exactly when this began has been hard to tell by looking at individual polls. But a statistical aggregate clarifies the answer: the middle of April, at the same time as President Trump’s increasingly wild coronavirus-19 press conferences. The core calculation is to determine […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Politics · Senate · Site News

Election tracking 2020, Part 1: The U.S. House

June 17th, 2020, 3:12pm by Sam Wang

In the coming weeks, PEC will roll out new features and a new design. Most prominent will be an emphasis on local action. Our editorial stance this year is to leverage your local efforts locally for the Presidency (4 years), the Senate (6 years), and redistricting (10 years). This week, we start up the previous […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · House · Princeton · Redistricting · Site News

Job opportunity – Computational Research Analyst, Gerrymandering and Redistricting

September 28th, 2017, 11:57pm by Sam Wang

The Gill v. Whitford oral argument gives new importance to this announcement. -Sam, 10/4/2017 The Princeton Gerrymandering Project is hiring! We’re looking for a computational research analyst to do geography-intensive calculations, test our simple statistical standards, and close loopholes in proposed reform efforts. It’s a full-time position, available immediately. Computational skills and an interest in […]

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Tags: Redistricting · Site News

The Princeton Gerrymandering Project is live!

August 4th, 2017, 7:34am by Sam Wang

I am happy to announce our revamped site at gerrymander.princeton.edu. This is part of the Princeton Gerrymandering Project’s tooling up for the coming several years of work by courts and reformers. The site now has an interactive map showing the results of three simple gerrymandering tests, applied in all the states. It allows you to […]

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Tags: Redistricting · Site News

Service notice (RESOLVED)

October 24th, 2016, 9:07pm by Sam Wang

I’ve been lying low. It’s a busy time here at Princeton: undergraduate advising, graduate teaching, and it’s midterms week! I figured since the Presidential race is basically over, the urgency of posting was reduced. Also, I’m working on a newspaper piece. Anyway, I will be back soon with more bloggy goodness. For now, please ignore […]

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Tags: Site News

Housekeeping note

October 11th, 2016, 8:40am by Sam Wang

Thanks to all the readers who noticed something wrong with the poll-aggregation rule. It’s fixed now, thanks to rapid response by PEC co-conspirator Walker Davis. I apologize for the glitch.

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Tags: 2016 Election · Site News

Get PEC pushed to your mobile!

August 13th, 2016, 8:00am by Sam Wang

The Princeton Election Consortium is partnering with StatX to bring to you a way to get our data updates automatically. The StatX app can provide you with all the key outputs on our calculations, updated five times a day: the EV snapshot, current Senate and House estimates, and the Meta-Margins. The app will link back to […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · Site News

Diagnostics

July 27th, 2016, 9:29pm by Sam Wang

The HuffPollster feeds are changing structure to offer more options. We are adapting. Tonight, some routine diagnostics…

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Tags: Site News

Correction

July 6th, 2016, 11:01am by Sam Wang

We are repairing a problem in our HuffPollster feed. We were not scraping states with few polls, and in those cases were using 2012 election results. This is now corrected. Current polls make the following states closer by at least three percentage points compared with 2012: AR, CO, CT, KS, ME, TN, TX, and WA. […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Site News