Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries Tagged as 'Senate'

The future of federalism is on the ballot

October 24th, 2020, 1:21pm by Sam Wang

In our system, states have a measure of independence of the federal government. This is newly important because in many places, state courts have become the best route for protecting voting rights. But that’s in question, as evidenced by a 4-4 Supreme Court ruling last week. However, this is one area where you have a […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Senate · Supreme Court · U.S. Institutions

Two-fers

October 10th, 2020, 7:05pm by Sam Wang

With three weeks to go in the campaign, fundraising is heating up. That’s even true for state legislatures, which will shape the political playing field for 10 years through redistricting. Today I will give four examples of how one donation can do the work of two.

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Tags: 2020 Election · President · Redistricting · Senate

Slow (downticket) train coming

October 6th, 2020, 5:24pm by Sam Wang

In surveys conducted October 1-4, surveys show Biden up by a 10.0 +/- 0.6 percentage points (7 surveys, median +/- estimated SEM). If sustained, that’s a larger popular margin than Obama 2008 (7.3 points) or Clinton 1996 (8.5 points. The last larger win was Reagan 1984 (18.2 points). The Presidential Meta-Margin, on the other hand, […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · House · President · Redistricting · Senate

Alaska, this year’s new swing state?

October 4th, 2020, 9:01am by Zachariah Sippy

Alaska is one of the most interesting states this November’s election. Not only is the state competitive in Presidential, Senate, and U.S. House elections, at the state level Democrats are fighting to retain control of the state House and prevent a Republican trifecta.

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Tags: 2020 Election · House · Moneyball · Politics · President · Senate

Sam on The New Abnormal (again)

October 2nd, 2020, 8:57pm by Sam Wang

Molly Jong-Fast and Rick Wilson had me back on their podcast, The New Abnormal! So pleased that they had me back. Molly is total fun, and so disrespectful. We talked elections of course, with a focus on Moneyball 2020. Many of you are focused on the Senate (which is swinging toward Democrats, thanks to Alaska […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · House · Moneyball · Redistricting · Senate

An “effective altruism” approach to the election

September 28th, 2020, 3:21am by Sam Wang

September 29: Modified to take into account change in Florida ratings. If you’ve been giving to races we’ve identified as high voter power, you may have noticed that once in a while, we make small changes. The reason is that our best estimate of return on investment responds to events or additional analysis. We will […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Redistricting · Senate

The Senate polling desert

September 16th, 2020, 8:49am by Sam Wang

Plenty of polls for the Presidency – but there’s a polling desert in all-important Senate races. How does this affect your activism? There are two places where you can hedge your efforts, either by preventing gerrymandering for a decade or by influencing the Presidential race.

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Tags: 2020 Election · Redistricting · Senate

Before the conventions, a slightly narrowing race

August 19th, 2020, 8:21am by Sam Wang

Can events like the roll-call vote above change public opinion? We’re about to find out – and trends over the last month will make a convention bounce easy to see, since Democrats have been trending slightly downward. Our federal poll trackers use different data streams, yet they seem to be moving together. This happened in […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · House · Politics · President · Senate

Ranked-choice voting wins in court in Maine

August 14th, 2020, 6:11pm by Sam Wang

This afternoon, Judge Lance Walker issued his order in a court case that affects this November’s Senate election. This comes surprisingly fast, just one day after the evidentiary hearing. He finds that plaintiffs, four supporters of Senator Susan Collins, have suffered no constitutional injury from ranked-choice voting. His order gets pretty tart with the plaintiffs, […]

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Tags: governors · Senate

Sam on The New Abnormal with Molly Jong-Fast and Rick Wilson

August 1st, 2020, 9:19am by Sam Wang

I had a great conversation with Molly Jong-Fast and Rick Wilson on their podcast, The New Abnormal! We talked polls, elections, and Moneyball 2020. Oh, and Senator Tammy Duckworth was the other two-thirds of their show. I guess data analytics are the vegetable course? As a Southern friend of mine says, if there’s nothing green […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · Politics · President · Redistricting · Senate