Final results: Warnock (D) and Ossoff (D) win, giving Democrats 50 seats in the Senate and control of the chamber. (NYT) In Georgia, first Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump. Now we have two competitive Senate races. Polls show the Democratic candidates, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, leading their opponents by a few points. If they […]
Entries Tagged as 'Senate'
Is Georgia 2020 the new Virginia 2008?
January 5th, 2021, 2:08pm by Sam Wang
Tags: 2020 Election · Senate
Georgia: send money and letters – but not postcards
November 21st, 2020, 1:31pm by Sam Wang
From the mailbag: Noted the thread from Lara Putnam about the Georgia runoffs. I think I understand her point that sending 50 or so postcards to random voters in a state with 5 million voters is pointless and serves only to make the postcarder feel useful. That if you want to do something to actually […]
Tags: 2020 Election · Senate
In the Washington Post
November 12th, 2020, 2:58pm by Sam Wang
In today’s Washington Post, my take on the sources of polling errors in Senate races – and the consequences for resource allocation when we don’t take those errors into account. I have more to say to PEC readers on this, since it was a major feature of what we did. If we knew then what […]
Tags: 2020 Election · Senate
Senate poll error: GOP undecideds came home
November 9th, 2020, 12:14pm by Sam Wang
The polling errors for Senate candidates were quite large this year. In 13 races with final-ish results, the margin of the outcome was a median of 7.9 points more Republican than the last week of polling. That’s an amazingly large difference. In the past, the median error was no more than 3 points or so. […]
Tags: 2020 Election · Senate
North Carolina and Georgia, you’re not done yet!
November 7th, 2020, 10:10am by Sam Wang
The Presidential race is resolved: …however, y’all are not done yet in the South! The importance of the election for redistricting is still unfolding. There’s one more item: the Chief Justice of the North Carolina state Supreme Court. As of today, that race is within a margin of 3,500 votes – 0.06% of the over […]
Tags: 2020 Election · Redistricting · Senate
Counting, conflict, and consequences
November 4th, 2020, 10:03am by Sam Wang
Based on traffic stats, the great majority of you arrived in the last few days. We’re living out some likely events I suggested in September. First, mail-in votes are different this year. They are taking a while to count in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Second, given the Trump Administration’s attitude to the law, it matters who […]
Tags: 2020 Election · President · Redistricting · Senate
Last snapshot, 2020: President, Senate, legislatures
November 3rd, 2020, 5:55pm by Sam Wang
Today’s the last day of voting. In normal years we call it Election Day. This year, it’s the day when the vote-counting begins. Thanks to all the early voting, polling stations are generally not busy. If you haven’t yet, go vote! Text MYVOTE to 977-79 to find your polling place. Here are some resources for […]
Tags: 2020 Election · House · Princeton · Redistricting · Senate
Can Montana and South Carolina slip off the Presidential coattails?
November 1st, 2020, 9:05am by Sam Wang
In our polarized political age, downticket races are increasingly driven by partisanship. Yet we still pay close attention to individual candidates – in Senate races, Joni Ernst’s inability to name the price of soybeans, or Cal Cunningham’s extramarital affair. Can races be simultaneously nationalized (i.e. track partisan affiliation) and separated from the Presidential race? Here […]
Tags: 2020 Election · Senate
Where are you on the Fauci scale?
October 31st, 2020, 11:00am by Sam Wang
Three days to the election. I’d rate myself between 2 and 3 on the Fauci scale. Somewhat complex feelings, so let’s say 2.5 + √-1. (Thanks to Karen Errichetti for thinking of this excellent graphic.) But seriously, here are my thoughts on what I’m watching on the home stretch. Read it in between phone banking […]
Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · President · Senate
Behind the curtain at the Fox News Decision Desk
October 29th, 2020, 11:09am by Sam Wang
In 2012, Karl Rove’s bubble was burst when Megyn Kelly strolled down to talk to the race-calling team in the bowels of Fox. In the current Politics & Polls, Julian Zelizer and I talk with the head of their 8-person decision desk, Arnon Mishkin. Lots of great details here, and it left me with more […]
Tags: 2020 Election · Senate
