Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Nov 03: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3% from toss-up), Senate 53 D, 47 R (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries Tagged as 'Senate'

Georgia: send money and letters – but not postcards

November 21st, 2020, 1:31pm by Sam Wang

From the mailbag: Noted the thread from Lara Putnam about the Georgia runoffs. I think​ I understand her point that sending 50 or so postcards to random voters in a state with 5 million voters is pointless and serves only to make the postcarder feel useful. That if you want to do something to actually […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · Senate

In the Washington Post

November 12th, 2020, 2:58pm by Sam Wang

In today’s Washington Post, my take on the sources of polling errors in Senate races – and the consequences for resource allocation when we don’t take those errors into account. I have more to say to PEC readers on this, since it was a major feature of what we did. If we knew then what […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · Senate

Senate poll error: GOP undecideds came home

November 9th, 2020, 12:14pm by Sam Wang

The polling errors for Senate candidates were quite large this year. In 13 races with final-ish results, the margin of the outcome was a median of 7.9 points more Republican than the last week of polling. That’s an amazingly large difference. In the past, the median error was no more than 3 points or so. […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · Senate

North Carolina and Georgia, you’re not done yet!

November 7th, 2020, 10:10am by Sam Wang

The Presidential race is resolved: …however, y’all are not done yet in the South! The importance of the election for redistricting is still unfolding. There’s one more item: the Chief Justice of the North Carolina state Supreme Court. As of today, that race is within a margin of 3,500 votes – 0.06% of the over […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · Redistricting · Senate

Counting, conflict, and consequences

November 4th, 2020, 10:03am by Sam Wang

Based on traffic stats, the great majority of you arrived in the last few days. We’re living out some likely events I suggested in September. First, mail-in votes are different this year. They are taking a while to count in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Second, given the Trump Administration’s attitude to the law, it matters who […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · President · Redistricting · Senate

Last snapshot, 2020: President, Senate, legislatures

November 3rd, 2020, 5:55pm by Sam Wang

Today’s the last day of voting. In normal years we call it Election Day. This  year, it’s the day when the vote-counting begins. Thanks to all the early voting, polling stations are generally not busy. If you haven’t yet, go vote! Text MYVOTE to 977-79 to find your polling place. Here are some resources for […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · House · Princeton · Redistricting · Senate

Can Montana and South Carolina slip off the Presidential coattails?

November 1st, 2020, 9:05am by Sam Wang

In our polarized political age, downticket races are increasingly driven by partisanship. Yet we still pay close attention to individual candidates – in Senate races, Joni Ernst’s inability to name the price of soybeans, or Cal Cunningham’s extramarital affair. Can races be simultaneously nationalized (i.e. track partisan affiliation) and separated from the Presidential race? Here […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · Senate

Where are you on the Fauci scale?

October 31st, 2020, 11:00am by Sam Wang

Three days to the election. I’d rate myself between 2 and 3 on the Fauci scale. Somewhat complex feelings, so let’s say 2.5 + √-1. (Thanks to Karen Errichetti for thinking of this excellent graphic.) But seriously, here are my thoughts on what I’m watching on the home stretch. Read it in between phone banking […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · President · Senate

Behind the curtain at the Fox News Decision Desk

October 29th, 2020, 11:09am by Sam Wang

In 2012, Karl Rove’s bubble was burst when Megyn Kelly strolled down to talk to the race-calling team in the bowels of Fox. In the current Politics & Polls, Julian Zelizer and I talk with the head of their 8-person decision desk, Arnon Mishkin. Lots of great details here, and it left me with more […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · Senate

The future of federalism is on the ballot

October 24th, 2020, 1:21pm by Sam Wang

In our system, states have a measure of independence of the federal government. This is newly important because in many places, state courts have become the best route for protecting voting rights. But that’s in question, as evidenced by a 4-4 Supreme Court ruling last week. However, this is one area where you have a […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · Senate · Supreme Court · U.S. Institutions