Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries Tagged as 'Redistricting'

The road leads back to you, sweet Georgia

October 26th, 2020, 9:20pm by Sam Wang

As I wrote the other day, federalism itself is on the ballot this year. Two notable events today with the Supreme Court demonstrate that point – and emphasize how important your activism is in shaping which way the nation goes.

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Tags: Redistricting

The Texas downticket, with Beto O’Rourke

October 26th, 2020, 5:00am by Zachariah Sippy

Join us on Tuesday at 5pm eastern for a conversation with former Congressman Beto O’Rourke (D-TX)! In particular we will discuss the Lone Star State, as in the last year, O’Rourke has focused his efforts on flipping the Texas House. After the conversation with O’Rourke, we’ll talk about tools being developed here at Princeton to […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · Politics · Redistricting

Redistricting Moneyball: Nebraska!

October 23rd, 2020, 8:59am by Sam Wang

We have an unexpected new Redistricting Moneyball state: Nebraska! The Nebraska legislature will affect the redrawing of Congressional districts, which matters both for the House and also for the Presidency. How’d we figure it out, and how can you help in the final days of the campaign? Analyzing Nebraska was harder than other states. The […]

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Tags: Redistricting

Minnesota Senate Candidates Pledge To Fight Gerrymandering

October 20th, 2020, 5:06pm by Zachariah Sippy

Six Minnesota State Senate candidates have pledged to fight against gerrymandering and unfair districting if elected, the nonpartisan Princeton Gerrymandering Project announced today.

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Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · Redistricting

Fairer districting in November for one-fourth of all House districts?

October 20th, 2020, 8:23am by Sam Wang

Wherever you are, there are so many reasons to vote. We have resources in the right sidebar. See the PEC 50-State Voter Guide. Also at other sites, see Taniel’s What’s on the Ballot? and Stephen Colbert’s Better Know A Ballot. Today, I have a rundown of all the ways you can make a difference in […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · House · Redistricting

Two-fers

October 10th, 2020, 7:05pm by Sam Wang

With three weeks to go in the campaign, fundraising is heating up. That’s even true for state legislatures, which will shape the political playing field for 10 years through redistricting. Today I will give four examples of how one donation can do the work of two.

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Tags: 2020 Election · President · Redistricting · Senate

Slow (downticket) train coming

October 6th, 2020, 5:24pm by Sam Wang

In surveys conducted October 1-4, surveys show Biden up by a 10.0 +/- 0.6 percentage points (7 surveys, median +/- estimated SEM). If sustained, that’s a larger popular margin than Obama 2008 (7.3 points) or Clinton 1996 (8.5 points. The last larger win was Reagan 1984 (18.2 points). The Presidential Meta-Margin, on the other hand, […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · House · President · Redistricting · Senate

Eagleton Institute Event: Understanding the Proposed N.J. Constitutional Amendment

October 6th, 2020, 1:00pm by Sam Wang

COVID-19 has delayed the U.S. Census and will complicate next year’s scheduled redrawing of legislative lines. In response, the New Jersey state legislature passed ACR188, a bill that would delay the redistricting process. While all states will be affected by the prospect census data arriving later than expected in 2021, New Jersey and Virginia are […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Redistricting

Sam on The New Abnormal (again)

October 2nd, 2020, 8:57pm by Sam Wang

Molly Jong-Fast and Rick Wilson had me back on their podcast, The New Abnormal! So pleased that they had me back. Molly is total fun, and so disrespectful. We talked elections of course, with a focus on Moneyball 2020. Many of you are focused on the Senate (which is swinging toward Democrats, thanks to Alaska […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · House · Moneyball · Redistricting · Senate

An “effective altruism” approach to the election

September 28th, 2020, 3:21am by Sam Wang

September 29: Modified to take into account change in Florida ratings. If you’ve been giving to races we’ve identified as high voter power, you may have noticed that once in a while, we make small changes. The reason is that our best estimate of return on investment responds to events or additional analysis. We will […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Redistricting · Senate