Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries Tagged as 'President'

The New Gilded Age, By The Numbers

September 24th, 2020, 1:26pm by Sam Wang

We’re in an exceptionally difficult time in our nation’s political history. A combination of economic stagnation, partisan polarizations, and demographic change has brought us to the point of losing our national consensus on what it means to have a United States. Is there any hope? Professor Jack Balkin says yes. In his new book, The […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2016 Election · 2020 Election · Politics · President · Redistricting

On Korean radio, TBS eFM

September 15th, 2020, 7:36pm by Sam Wang

I was just interviewed on morning news radio in Korea, 101.3 FM. We talked about whether to trust opinion polls, how long the count may take on Election Night, and hallmarks of authoritarianism in the current Administration. A lot for a short interview. Listen on iTunes or their podcast platform!

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · President

Mailing it in?

September 14th, 2020, 1:32pm by Sam Wang

This year, how long might we have to wait to find out the results to the Presidential election? The National Conference of State Legislatures has compiled laws and policies for 2020 for processing and counting absentee and mail-in ballots. By combining them with current polls, we can get an idea of what we will know […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · President

The Authoritarian Checklist, September 2020

September 6th, 2020, 7:24am by Sam Wang

In his public abuse of Laurene Powell Jobs, Donald Trump reminds us again of the PEC Authoritarian Checklist. At this point, the Trump Administration meets all 10 criteria for authoritarianism that I laid out in 2017, before the start of the term. It was a way of laying out possibilities in advance, preventing the concepts […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · President · U.S. Institutions

Even odds?

August 31st, 2020, 11:38am by Sam Wang

Betting markets used to favor Biden over Trump. But in the days after the Democratic and Republican conventions, the markets now report 50-50 odds, a toss-up. Is that a realistic assessment? Based on polling metrics alone, the data so far don’t support this shift. It seems that bettors are factoring in “pre-poll” possibilities such as […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · President

When’s that bounce coming?

August 30th, 2020, 9:20am by Sam Wang

In case anyone is curious, the Presidential state poll aggregator won’t start to show the effects of cumulative post-convention bounce (Democratic plus Republican combined) until surveys are available. Maybe as early as tomorrow, but more likely it will take the whole of the coming week to see it clearly. Luckily there isn’t much news happening. […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · President

Before the conventions, a slightly narrowing race

August 19th, 2020, 8:21am by Sam Wang

Can events like the roll-call vote above change public opinion? We’re about to find out – and trends over the last month will make a convention bounce easy to see, since Democrats have been trending slightly downward. Our federal poll trackers use different data streams, yet they seem to be moving together. This happened in […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · House · Politics · President · Senate

How hard is it to steal a national election by mail?

August 13th, 2020, 8:09am by Guest Contributor

(This guest article from August, by Michael Goldstein, seems relevant now. Elected officials in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania have kept the vote-counting process moving forward in an orderly way. For that we should be grateful. -Sam, 11/5/2020) Recent statements by the President – and actions by Postmaster General Louis DeJoy – raise concerns about the […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · Politics · President

What’s more important than a Presidential probability?

August 9th, 2020, 2:21pm by Sam Wang

Presidential models are mainly of interest in close elections, which have been the norm since 2000. This year, Joe Biden occasionally gets within sight of 400 electoral votes, which we haven’t seen since Bill Clinton or George H.W. Bush. In addition, U.S. Senate and state legislative races are of paramount importance. So we’ve spent less […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · President · Redistricting

Sam on The New Abnormal with Molly Jong-Fast and Rick Wilson

August 1st, 2020, 9:19am by Sam Wang

I had a great conversation with Molly Jong-Fast and Rick Wilson on their podcast, The New Abnormal! We talked polls, elections, and Moneyball 2020. Oh, and Senator Tammy Duckworth was the other two-thirds of their show. I guess data analytics are the vegetable course? As a Southern friend of mine says, if there’s nothing green […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · Politics · President · Redistricting · Senate