Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Oct 21: Biden 353 EV (D+5.2% from toss-up), Senate 53 D, 47 R (D+5.1%), House control D+5.0%
Moneyball states: President NV AZ PA, Senate AK MT IA, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries Tagged as 'President'

Before the conventions, a slightly narrowing race

August 19th, 2020, 8:21am by Sam Wang

Can events like the roll-call vote above change public opinion? We’re about to find out – and trends over the last month will make a convention bounce easy to see, since Democrats have been trending slightly downward. Our federal poll trackers use different data streams, yet they seem to be moving together. This happened in […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · House · Politics · President · Senate

How hard is it to steal a national election by mail?

August 13th, 2020, 8:09am by Guest Contributor

(This is a guest article by Michael Goldstein of Trenton, New Jersey. I helped too. -Sam) Recent statements by the President – and actions by Postmaster General Louis DeJoy – raise concerns about the integrity of the upcoming Presidential election. In a close election, voter suppression (such as deliberate slowing of the mails) and election […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Politics · President

What’s more important than a Presidential probability?

August 9th, 2020, 2:21pm by Sam Wang

Presidential models are mainly of interest in close elections, which have been the norm since 2000. This year, Joe Biden occasionally gets within sight of 400 electoral votes, which we haven’t seen since Bill Clinton or George H.W. Bush. In addition, U.S. Senate and state legislative races are of paramount importance. So we’ve spent less […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · President · Redistricting

Sam on The New Abnormal with Molly Jong-Fast and Rick Wilson

August 1st, 2020, 9:19am by Sam Wang

I had a great conversation with Molly Jong-Fast and Rick Wilson on their podcast, The New Abnormal! We talked polls, elections, and Moneyball 2020. Oh, and Senator Tammy Duckworth was the other two-thirds of their show. I guess data analytics are the vegetable course? As a Southern friend of mine says, if there’s nothing green […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · Politics · President · Redistricting · Senate

It’s alive! Election tracking 2020, Part 3: The Presidency

June 19th, 2020, 6:46am by Sam Wang

Detailed explanation to come. Basically, it’s the same as the 2016 calculation – a simple snapshot of polls to give a sharp picture of where the race is on any single day, to allow optimization of resource allocation. The November prediction (red zone, one-sigma; yellow zone, two-sigma or 95% confidence band) comes from estimating the […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President · Site News

Authoritarianism in 2020: Checking the checklist

June 4th, 2020, 12:47pm by Sam Wang

August 23: Re-upping this, an advance checklist of what to look for. Also, recently Ruth Ben-Ghiat reviewed how a whole political party was co-opted by an authoritarian-minded outsider. Also, the Republican Party has announced that in lieu of a platform, its position is to support whatever Donald Trump wants to do. Updated September 6th, 2020. […]

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Tags: President · Supreme Court · U.S. Institutions

Fixing Bugs In Democracy: The Electoral College

June 3rd, 2020, 9:13pm by Sam Wang

Thursday at 6:00pm, I’m pleased to help host the fourth event in our series, Fixing Bugs In Democracy. In our cross-hairs: the Electoral College. That’s right, we are hosting an event for an author who wants to do away with the reason that most people come to this site. It’s a terrific book, full of […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

Reanimating… Meta-margin Biden+4.6%, most effective GOTV states NV/AZ/FL/NM/NH/MI/NC

May 24th, 2020, 4:15pm by Sam Wang

Just a quiet Sunday, reanimating some code…minus some problems from 2016. As of today, survey support for Biden is 4.6% above threshold in terms of Electoral College mechanisms. Median snapshot of current polls: Biden 343, Trump 195 EV. Today’s poll-based modal outcome (i.e. the single most probable combination): Here’s what it looks like if just […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

Bernie Sanders’s parting gift to Wisconsin voters

April 11th, 2020, 12:07pm by Sam Wang

When it comes to partisan warfare, Wisconsin is at the top of any list. In 2011, Republicans, with the help of their Governor Scott Walker, committed one of the most egregious gerrymanders of all time. The General Assembly locked itself into power for a decade. Now, thanks to Bernie Sanders’s persistence, Democrats may take a […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Health · Politics · President · Redistricting

Sam on UnPresidented, with Cliff Schecter and John Aravosis

April 7th, 2020, 5:49pm by Sam Wang

Dr. @SamWangPhD in one of the most accessible Coronavirus interviews you’ll listen to. (And we talk the Wisconsin election, gerrymandering, and the brain too!) @UnPresidentPod with @cliffschecter and me.https://t.co/e5dOf2BsNd — John Aravosis 🇺🇸 (@aravosis) April 7, 2020 Today I had a great conversation with Cliff Schecter and John Aravosis on their podcast, UnPresidented. Mostly we […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Politics · President · U.S. Institutions