Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries Tagged as 'President'

The Biden Administration’s busy first day

January 20th, 2021, 9:26pm by Sam Wang

Busy day so far: Rejoining the Paris Climate Accord. VP Harris swearing in three new Senators. Staying in the World Health Organization. Undoing immigration restrictions and restoring DACA. Firing the National Labor Relations Board’s general counsel. Freezing student loan repayments and interest. No more border wall. Revoking a variety of other Trump Administration policies, and… […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

In Wisconsin, hidden flaws in new proposal for electoral votes

January 12th, 2021, 1:56pm by Zachariah Sippy

State Representative Gary Tauchen (R) has introduced a bill in the Wisconsin General Assembly to change the way electoral votes are allocated. Instead of a winner-take-all system, his proposal would dole them out by congressional districts. At first, this plan looks like it would help Republicans. But the real long-term beneficiaries might be Democrats— and […]

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Tags: President · Redistricting

Counting, conflict, and consequences

November 4th, 2020, 10:03am by Sam Wang

Based on traffic stats, the great majority of you arrived in the last few days. We’re living out some likely events I suggested in September. First, mail-in votes are different this year. They are taking a while to count in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Second, given the Trump Administration’s attitude to the law, it matters who […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President · Redistricting · Senate

Avoiding conflict despite the Electoral College

November 3rd, 2020, 7:41am by Sam Wang

Don’t forget, the states in gold started counting their mail-in votes today or last night!

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

Where are you on the Fauci scale?

October 31st, 2020, 11:00am by Sam Wang

Three days to the election. I’d rate myself between 2 and 3 on the Fauci scale. Somewhat complex feelings, so let’s say 2.5 + √-1. (Thanks to Karen Errichetti for thinking of this excellent graphic.) But seriously, here are my thoughts on what I’m watching on the home stretch. Read it in between phone banking […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · President · Senate

Three-fourths of Biden votes will be cast before Election Day

October 11th, 2020, 9:53am by Sam Wang

A recent (October 6-9) ABC/Washington Post poll (see story) captures a disconnect between Election Day and pre-Election Day voting.

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

Two-fers

October 10th, 2020, 7:05pm by Sam Wang

With three weeks to go in the campaign, fundraising is heating up. That’s even true for state legislatures, which will shape the political playing field for 10 years through redistricting. Today I will give four examples of how one donation can do the work of two.

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Tags: 2020 Election · President · Redistricting · Senate

Slow (downticket) train coming

October 6th, 2020, 5:24pm by Sam Wang

In surveys conducted October 1-4, surveys show Biden up by a 10.0 +/- 0.6 percentage points (7 surveys, median +/- estimated SEM). If sustained, that’s a larger popular margin than Obama 2008 (7.3 points) or Clinton 1996 (8.5 points. The last larger win was Reagan 1984 (18.2 points). The Presidential Meta-Margin, on the other hand, […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · House · President · Redistricting · Senate

Alaska, this year’s new swing state?

October 4th, 2020, 9:01am by Zachariah Sippy

Alaska is one of the most interesting states this November’s election. Not only is the state competitive in Presidential, Senate, and U.S. House elections, at the state level Democrats are fighting to retain control of the state House and prevent a Republican trifecta.

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Tags: 2020 Election · House · Moneyball · Politics · President · Senate

The New Gilded Age, By The Numbers

September 24th, 2020, 1:26pm by Sam Wang

We’re in an exceptionally difficult time in our nation’s political history. A combination of economic stagnation, partisan polarizations, and demographic change has brought us to the point of losing our national consensus on what it means to have a United States. Is there any hope? Professor Jack Balkin says yes. In his new book, The […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · 2020 Election · Politics · President · Redistricting