Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Sep 19: Biden 352 EV (D+5.3% from toss-up), Senate 52 D, 48 R (D+3.2%), House control D+2.0%
Moneyball states: President NV AZ PA, Senate MT KS AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries Tagged as 'President'

On Korean radio, TBS eFM

September 15th, 2020, 7:36pm by Sam Wang

I was just interviewed on morning news radio in Korea, 101.3 FM. We talked about whether to trust opinion polls, how long the count may take on Election Night, and hallmarks of authoritarianism in the current Administration. A lot for a short interview. Listen on iTunes or their podcast platform!

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

Mailing it in?

September 14th, 2020, 1:32pm by Sam Wang

This year, how long might we have to wait to find out the results to the Presidential election? The National Conference of State Legislatures has compiled laws and policies for 2020 for processing and counting absentee and mail-in ballots. By combining them with current polls, we can get an idea of what we will know […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

The Authoritarian Checklist, September 2020

September 6th, 2020, 7:24am by Sam Wang

In his public abuse of Laurene Powell Jobs, Donald Trump reminds us again of the PEC Authoritarian Checklist. At this point, the Trump Administration meets all 10 criteria for authoritarianism that I laid out in 2017, before the start of the term. It was a way of laying out possibilities in advance, preventing the concepts […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President · U.S. Institutions

Even odds?

August 31st, 2020, 11:38am by Sam Wang

Betting markets used to favor Biden over Trump. But in the days after the Democratic and Republican conventions, the markets now report 50-50 odds, a toss-up. Is that a realistic assessment? Based on polling metrics alone, the data so far don’t support this shift. It seems that bettors are factoring in “pre-poll” possibilities such as […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

When’s that bounce coming?

August 30th, 2020, 9:20am by Sam Wang

In case anyone is curious, the Presidential state poll aggregator won’t start to show the effects of cumulative post-convention bounce (Democratic plus Republican combined) until surveys are available. Maybe as early as tomorrow, but more likely it will take the whole of the coming week to see it clearly. Luckily there isn’t much news happening. […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

Before the conventions, a slightly narrowing race

August 19th, 2020, 8:21am by Sam Wang

Can events like the roll-call vote above change public opinion? We’re about to find out – and trends over the last month will make a convention bounce easy to see, since Democrats have been trending slightly downward. Our federal poll trackers use different data streams, yet they seem to be moving together. This happened in […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · House · Politics · President · Senate

How hard is it to steal a national election by mail?

August 13th, 2020, 8:09am by Guest Contributor

(This is a guest article by Michael Goldstein of Trenton, New Jersey. I helped too. -Sam) Recent statements by the President – and actions by Postmaster General Louis DeJoy – raise concerns about the integrity of the upcoming Presidential election. In a close election, voter suppression (such as deliberate slowing of the mails) and election […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Politics · President

What’s more important than a Presidential probability?

August 9th, 2020, 2:21pm by Sam Wang

Presidential models are mainly of interest in close elections, which have been the norm since 2000. This year, Joe Biden occasionally gets within sight of 400 electoral votes, which we haven’t seen since Bill Clinton or George H.W. Bush. In addition, U.S. Senate and state legislative races are of paramount importance. So we’ve spent less […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · President · Redistricting

Sam on The New Abnormal with Molly Jong-Fast and Rick Wilson

August 1st, 2020, 9:19am by Sam Wang

I had a great conversation with Molly Jong-Fast and Rick Wilson on their podcast, The New Abnormal! We talked polls, elections, and Moneyball 2020. Oh, and Senator Tammy Duckworth was the other two-thirds of their show. I guess data analytics are the vegetable course? As a Southern friend of mine says, if there’s nothing green […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · Politics · President · Redistricting · Senate

It’s alive! Election tracking 2020, Part 3: The Presidency

June 19th, 2020, 6:46am by Sam Wang

Detailed explanation to come. Basically, it’s the same as the 2016 calculation – a simple snapshot of polls to give a sharp picture of where the race is on any single day, to allow optimization of resource allocation. The November prediction (red zone, one-sigma; yellow zone, two-sigma or 95% confidence band) comes from estimating the […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President · Site News