Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Oct 25: Biden 360 EV (D+5.6% from toss-up), Senate 52 D, 48 R (D+4.2%), House control D+5.0%
Moneyball states: President ME-2 NV NC, Senate AK MT IA, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries Tagged as 'President'

Three-fourths of Biden votes will be cast before Election Day

October 11th, 2020, 9:53am by Sam Wang

A recent (October 6-9) ABC/Washington Post poll (see story) captures a disconnect between Election Day and pre-Election Day voting.

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

Two-fers

October 10th, 2020, 7:05pm by Sam Wang

With three weeks to go in the campaign, fundraising is heating up. That’s even true for state legislatures, which will shape the political playing field for 10 years through redistricting. Today I will give four examples of how one donation can do the work of two.

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Tags: 2020 Election · President · Redistricting · Senate

Slow (downticket) train coming

October 6th, 2020, 5:24pm by Sam Wang

In surveys conducted October 1-4, surveys show Biden up by a 10.0 +/- 0.6 percentage points (7 surveys, median +/- estimated SEM). If sustained, that’s a larger popular margin than Obama 2008 (7.3 points) or Clinton 1996 (8.5 points. The last larger win was Reagan 1984 (18.2 points). The Presidential Meta-Margin, on the other hand, […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · House · President · Redistricting · Senate

Alaska, this year’s new swing state?

October 4th, 2020, 9:01am by Zachariah Sippy

Alaska is one of the most interesting states this November’s election. Not only is the state competitive in Presidential, Senate, and U.S. House elections, at the state level Democrats are fighting to retain control of the state House and prevent a Republican trifecta.

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Tags: 2020 Election · House · Moneyball · Politics · President · Senate

The New Gilded Age, By The Numbers

September 24th, 2020, 1:26pm by Sam Wang

We’re in an exceptionally difficult time in our nation’s political history. A combination of economic stagnation, partisan polarizations, and demographic change has brought us to the point of losing our national consensus on what it means to have a United States. Is there any hope? Professor Jack Balkin says yes. In his new book, The […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · 2020 Election · Politics · President · Redistricting

On Korean radio, TBS eFM

September 15th, 2020, 7:36pm by Sam Wang

I was just interviewed on morning news radio in Korea, 101.3 FM. We talked about whether to trust opinion polls, how long the count may take on Election Night, and hallmarks of authoritarianism in the current Administration. A lot for a short interview. Listen on iTunes or their podcast platform!

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

Mailing it in?

September 14th, 2020, 1:32pm by Sam Wang

This year, how long might we have to wait to find out the results to the Presidential election? The National Conference of State Legislatures has compiled laws and policies for 2020 for processing and counting absentee and mail-in ballots. By combining them with current polls, we can get an idea of what we will know […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

The Authoritarian Checklist, September 2020

September 6th, 2020, 7:24am by Sam Wang

In his public abuse of Laurene Powell Jobs, Donald Trump reminds us again of the PEC Authoritarian Checklist. At this point, the Trump Administration meets all 10 criteria for authoritarianism that I laid out in 2017, before the start of the term. It was a way of laying out possibilities in advance, preventing the concepts […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President · U.S. Institutions

Even odds?

August 31st, 2020, 11:38am by Sam Wang

Betting markets used to favor Biden over Trump. But in the days after the Democratic and Republican conventions, the markets now report 50-50 odds, a toss-up. Is that a realistic assessment? Based on polling metrics alone, the data so far don’t support this shift. It seems that bettors are factoring in “pre-poll” possibilities such as […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

When’s that bounce coming?

August 30th, 2020, 9:20am by Sam Wang

In case anyone is curious, the Presidential state poll aggregator won’t start to show the effects of cumulative post-convention bounce (Democratic plus Republican combined) until surveys are available. Maybe as early as tomorrow, but more likely it will take the whole of the coming week to see it clearly. Luckily there isn’t much news happening. […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President