Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Jul 15: Biden 372 EV (D+5.9% from toss-up), Senate 53 D, 47 R (D+5.6%), House control D+8.0%
Moneyball states: President AK AR IA, Senate MT KS ME, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries Tagged as 'President'

It’s alive!

June 19th, 2020, 6:46am by Sam Wang

Detailed explanation to come. Basically, it’s the same as the 2016 calculation – a simple snapshot of polls to give a sharp picture of where the race is on any single day, to allow optimization of resource allocation. The November prediction (red zone, one-sigma; yellow zone, two-sigma or 95% confidence band) comes from estimating the […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · President · Site News

Authoritarianism in 2020: Checking the checklist

June 4th, 2020, 12:47pm by Sam Wang

In January 2017, shortly after the Inauguration, I provided a ten-item checklist of signs of authoritarianism. It seemed like a good idea to think in advance about what might happen, and lay down a marker in advance. In addition, I was concerned that the press, television media, and citizens might become desensitized to the news. […]

[Read more →]

Tags: President · Supreme Court · U.S. Institutions

Fixing Bugs In Democracy: The Electoral College

June 3rd, 2020, 9:13pm by Sam Wang

Thursday at 6:00pm, I’m pleased to help host the fourth event in our series, Fixing Bugs In Democracy. In our cross-hairs: the Electoral College. That’s right, we are hosting an event for an author who wants to do away with the reason that most people come to this site. It’s a terrific book, full of […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · President

Reanimating… Meta-margin Biden+4.6%, most effective GOTV states NV/AZ/FL/NM/NH/MI/NC

May 24th, 2020, 4:15pm by Sam Wang

Just a quiet Sunday, reanimating some code…minus some problems from 2016. As of today, survey support for Biden is 4.6% above threshold in terms of Electoral College mechanisms. Median snapshot of current polls: Biden 343, Trump 195 EV. Today’s poll-based modal outcome (i.e. the single most probable combination): Here’s what it looks like if just […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · President

Bernie Sanders’s parting gift to Wisconsin voters

April 11th, 2020, 12:07pm by Sam Wang

When it comes to partisan warfare, Wisconsin is at the top of any list. In 2011, Republicans, with the help of their Governor Scott Walker, committed one of the most egregious gerrymanders of all time. The General Assembly locked itself into power for a decade. Now, thanks to Bernie Sanders’s persistence, Democrats may take a […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · Health · Politics · President · Redistricting

Sam on UnPresidented, with Cliff Schecter and John Aravosis

April 7th, 2020, 5:49pm by Sam Wang

Dr. @SamWangPhD in one of the most accessible Coronavirus interviews you’ll listen to. (And we talk the Wisconsin election, gerrymandering, and the brain too!) @UnPresidentPod with @cliffschecter and me.https://t.co/e5dOf2BsNd — John Aravosis 🇺🇸 (@aravosis) April 7, 2020 Today I had a great conversation with Cliff Schecter and John Aravosis on their podcast, UnPresidented. Mostly we […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · Politics · President · U.S. Institutions

Re-electability

February 15th, 2020, 12:47am by Sam Wang

A reader asked the following question in comments: Let’s get right to it (aka the $64K question): Who has the BEST chance to beat Trump? Your personal opinion and/or statistically. The answer is that as far as I can tell, basically it doesn’t matter.

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · President

Sanders v. Buttigieg?

February 11th, 2020, 8:55pm by Sam Wang

The New Hampshire primary is coming in as expected from last week’s polls. Like I said Saturday, past patterns suggest that the most likely nominee will be Sanders or Buttigieg. Based on the fact that the past pattern has only been observed across 9 nomination races, the probability of an exception might be around 1 […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · President

Did Iowa turn Biden and Warren into longshots?

February 8th, 2020, 3:09pm by Sam Wang

Last week I pointed out three past criteria that have described the eventual nominee of either party. With the New Hampshire primary just three days away, current polls make it look like two people meet all the criteria: Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg. After the fuss over difficult tabulation in the Iowa caucus, there was […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · President

How predictive is the Iowa caucus? 2020 edition

February 3rd, 2020, 11:10am by Sam Wang

(Update, Tuesday February 4th 7:45pm: With Iowa returns finally becoming available, it looks like the top four are the same as what I wrote about below. So this post can be read exactly the same – no modification necessary!) (Pardon the mess – we’re under construction. 2020 content coming soon!) National surveys and the Iowa caucus […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · President