Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries Tagged as 'Meta-analysis'

Protected: election and gerrymander punchlist – pec2016

June 28th, 2016, 9:33am by Sam Wang

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

[

Tags: Meta-analysis


January 1st, 2016, 9:00am by Sam Wang

[

Tags: Meta-analysis

Help with district-partitioning calculation?

April 25th, 2015, 2:15pm by Sam Wang

(Considering that this is a fairly narrow-appeal post, I will pipe it over to the right-hand “Meta-Analysis” column shortly.) Dear PEC readers, I have a math puzzle. It relates to my gerrymandering project. If you are good at working with probability distributions, take a look. Can you solve it?

[

Tags: 2012 Election · 2014 Election · House · Meta-analysis · Redistricting

Factchecking Nate Silver

October 5th, 2014, 4:39pm by Sam Wang

In response to the post below, Nate Silver wrote a longer piece for Political Wire. I am traveling, and will reply soon. You’ll want to read it. Check back soon!

[

Tags: 2014 Election · Meta-analysis · Senate

Gerrymandering notes: how many votes to take House, 1992-2012

January 30th, 2013, 12:28am by Sam Wang

Dear PEC Readers, we’re going casual tonight. This is for frequent visitors and those of you on the RSS feed. I’ll explain…

[

Tags: 2012 Election · House · Meta-analysis

Gerrymandering code – for the do-it-yourselfers

January 3rd, 2013, 10:43am by Sam Wang

For the true hardcore…A version of the MATLAB code I used is now available.

[

Tags: 2012 Election · House · Meta-analysis · Politics · Redistricting

With Jay Ackroyd at 9pm (soon!)

November 8th, 2012, 7:25pm by Sam Wang

Hi, all. A bit inundated with media, and also recovering. However…join me with Jay Ackroyd on a webcast of Virtually Speaking, in 1.5 hours – at 9pm Eastern. See you! call in: 646 200 3440

[

Tags: 2012 Election · Meta-analysis · Politics

Presidential prediction 2012 (final… stay tuned)

November 6th, 2012, 11:47am by Sam Wang

Now that all the polls are in, it’s possible to perform variance minimization, a simple procedure to identify the range of polls that can be used – and therefore reduce uncertainty. We’ll have that in a bit. Calculating and double-checking…stand by.

[

Tags: 2012 Election · Meta-analysis · President

Test – Facebook open thread

November 1st, 2012, 3:45pm by Sam Wang

(original version released November 1, 3:45pm on temporary site) I miss my commenters! Let’s see if Facebook-based threads are sustainable. Open discussion thread for the Presidential race. Ro-mentum, early voting, whatever…have at it!

[

Tags: 2012 Election · Meta-analysis · Site News

Offline for a moment…

October 28th, 2012, 9:08pm by Sam Wang

I must relocate the server in light of the imminent hurricane strike. Don’t be concerned if we go away for a bit. Update: back. Fingers crossed!

[

Tags: Meta-analysis · Site News