Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Jul 09: Biden 375 EV (D+6.3% from toss-up), Senate 53 D, 47 R (D+5.8%), House control D+6.0%
Moneyball states: President AR IA AZ, Senate MT KS ME, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries Tagged as 'House'

Post-Labor Day movement: for Republicans, a Kavanaugh effect?

October 5th, 2018, 9:24am by Sam Wang

We’re off to a late start this year; more balls in the air, especially gerrymandering, and a busy term. The House and Senate calculations are running for 2018, though we’re still polishing the display. The calculations are designed to pick up movement quickly. Here’s something notable: since Labor Day, both indicators show distinct movement, about […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House · Senate · Supreme Court

Optimal Donations 2018: Senate and Governor’s races

August 26th, 2018, 4:40pm by Sam Wang

In 2016, I promised to get away from giving you probabilities. Here I show that under current conditions, you can optimize your donations without such calculations. As has been the case in past elections, I’d like to point out key races where supporters of either Democrats or Republicans will get the maximum impact for their […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · governors · House · Redistricting · Senate

Thomas Hofeller, 1943-2018

August 19th, 2018, 9:59am by Sam Wang

Despite the near-certainty that Democrats will win the national popular vote for House races in November, I still estimate a 10% probability (and other forecasters, up to 25%) that Republicans will retain control. Why? Gerrymandering. More than anyone else, Tom Hofeller was responsible for the modern age of aggressive redistricting. He carried out this program […]

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Tags: House · Politics · Redistricting

Optimizing Your Efforts in 2018: Part I, the House

July 14th, 2018, 10:48am by Sam Wang

The odds moderately favor a switch in control of the House of Representatives in 2018. But make no mistake, things could go either way. This November will be a battle of inches. For many of you, the battle’s coming to a district near you. We’re renewing a tool that made its debut two years ago. […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House

Another SCOTUS partisan gerrymandering case in 2017-2018 goes forward!

December 8th, 2017, 11:12pm by Sam Wang

Amos 5:24 But let judgment run down as waters, and righteousness as a mighty stream. https://t.co/WOEq1KdUnt — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) December 8, 2017 This is quite novel. We are still waiting for the decision in Gill v. Whitford, this year’s big partisan-gerrymandering case before the Supreme Court. However, it turns out it’s just the first […]

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Tags: House · Redistricting

A Manageable Approach to Partisan Gerrymandering

September 4th, 2017, 2:22pm by Sam Wang

If the Supreme Court lays down a partisan symmetry-based standard for gerrymandering, will this open up a flood of lawsuits? Over at Election Law Blog, I use election evidence to argue that no, it will act as more of a brushback to future offenders. The reason? As you can see in the chart, partisan gerrymanders only […]

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Tags: House · Redistricting

Democratic Partisan Gerrymanders, 1972-present

August 23rd, 2017, 12:39am by Sam Wang

The Princeton Gerrymandering Project makes it easy to browse all gerrymandering offenses for a given year. We are now starting to cross-reference these offenses with who had control over the redistricting process. It’s a daunting task, but our statistical analyst Brian Remlinger is on the case. Brian has found something interesting: from 1972 until now, […]

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Tags: House · Redistricting

Politics & Polls w/Congressman Leonard Lance

April 24th, 2017, 5:54am by Sam Wang

Representative Leonard Lance has been in the crosshairs of activists. His Congressional district went narrowly for Clinton over Trump, and before going to Washington he had a reputation as a moderate. I interviewed Congressman Lance solo (Julian’s overseas). In our far-ranging conversation, we talked about many topics: the Affordable Care Act (he’s in favor of […]

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Tags: House · Princeton

Politics & Polls #37: a chat with Robert Costa

March 30th, 2017, 10:06am by Sam Wang

Julian Zelizer and I interviewed Robert Costa, political reporter for the Washington Post. Costa’s been covering national politics for many years. Last Friday, he was the first person that Donald Trump called to talk about the cancellation of the vote on Affordable Care Act repeal. We got into what it was like to get the […]

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Tags: House · President · Senate

Politics & Polls #29

February 3rd, 2017, 7:34am by Sam Wang

Are we seeing the birth cries of an authoritarian regime? Or is it the gang that couldn’t shoot straight? Julian Zelizer and I debate this and more in episode #29 of Politics & Polls. Following up on a previous episode with Theda Skocpol on rebuilding the Democratic Party, here’s a great interview with Skocpol in Democracy […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House · President