Can events like the roll-call vote above change public opinion? We’re about to find out – and trends over the last month will make a convention bounce easy to see, since Democrats have been trending slightly downward. Our federal poll trackers use different data streams, yet they seem to be moving together. This happened in […]
Entries Tagged as 'House'
Before the conventions, a slightly narrowing race
August 19th, 2020, 8:21am by Sam Wang
Tags: 2020 Election · House · Politics · President · Senate
Ranked-choice voting gets a hearing in Maine
August 13th, 2020, 8:07am by Sam Wang
Today in Maine, ranked-choice voting will be considered in federal court for the third time. And our team at Princeton has weighed in. In 2018, ranked-choice voting was used for a federal election for the first time anywhere in the United States, in the 2nd Congressional District of Maine. And it made a difference. Minor-party […]
Tags: 2018 Election · House
U.S. House 2020 – November forecast
July 19th, 2020, 11:34am by Sam Wang
We’ve combined the generic-Congressional ballot with special-election data to generate a November forecast. The black trace shows the day-to-day snapshot using generic-Congressional surveys. Data come from FiveThirtyEight filtered using our own median rule. We generated a prior by using special elections since 2018. We combined the two by assuming (a) random drift from the snapshot, […]
Tags: 2020 Election · House
Election tracking 2020, Part 1: The U.S. House
June 17th, 2020, 3:12pm by Sam Wang
In the coming weeks, PEC will roll out new features and a new design. Most prominent will be an emphasis on local action. Our editorial stance this year is to leverage your local efforts locally for the Presidency (4 years), the Senate (6 years), and redistricting (10 years). This week, we start up the previous […]
Tags: 2020 Election · House · Princeton · Redistricting · Site News
Moneyball politics: Florida (Part II)
February 9th, 2020, 8:36am by Sam Wang
A few days ago, I wrote about how focused effort in a handful of Florida state legislative districts could lead to outsized consequences lasting for the next decade. Here are those districts – and ways to focus on them.
Tags: 2020 Election · House
Moneyball politics: Florida
February 6th, 2020, 4:51am by Sam Wang
I’m in Florida at an event with Katie Fahey, founder of Voters Not Politicians! Naturally we got to talking about redistricting reform. Here at PEC, we’ve always been looking for ways to maximize the effectiveness of people’s donations and time. That means finding interventions that move probabilities the most, while costing the least. Usually, these […]
Tags: 2020 Election · House · Politics · Redistricting
Princeton Gerrymandering Project – 2019, in Review
December 31st, 2019, 9:46am by Sam Wang
What a year (and what a decade) it was for gerrymandering. It was also a pivotal year for the Princeton Gerrymandering Project, as we adapted to the next stage of redistricting reform. Even as we have grown, we’re still using law, math, and data to help power change. But we have now made our focus […]
Tags: House · Princeton · Redistricting
Electoral maps based on 2018 results
November 7th, 2018, 12:28pm by Sam Wang
(revised Friday November 9th to correct an error in Maine Senate) The election turned out approximately as expected from advance information, a narrowly-Democratic House and a Republican Senate. I thought it might be good to look at the results from the perspective of 2020.
Tags: 2018 Election · House · Senate
Following the returns, 2018
November 6th, 2018, 7:53pm by Sam Wang
Tonight’s liveblogging: A mixed scoreboard for redistricting reform. WINSPA: courts redrew House mapMI, CO, MO: voter initiativesWI: Evers introduces split controlNC: state Supreme Court to act as check LOSSESFL: under DeSantis, single-party control, no court checkGA: if Kemp wins, the same — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) November 7, 2018 1:52am: The gubernatorial races in Wisconsin and […]
Tags: 2018 Election · House
What you’re voting for today
November 6th, 2018, 8:22am by Sam Wang
You’re voting, right? Check your poll location and closing time. And you donated [PEC’s high-leverage picks] [NRSC]. And now, on Election Day, three cheers to those of you who are getting out the vote. Good luck – your country needs you! In addition to the House (final snapshot here) and Senate (final snapshot here, post-Kavanaugh […]
Tags: 2018 Election · House · Senate · U.S. Institutions
