Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Jul 15: Biden 372 EV (D+5.9% from toss-up), Senate 53 D, 47 R (D+5.6%), House control D+8.0%
Moneyball states: President AK AR IA, Senate MT KS ME, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries Tagged as 'House'

Election tracking 2020, Part 1: The U.S. House

June 17th, 2020, 3:12pm by Sam Wang

In the coming weeks, PEC will roll out new features and a new design. Most prominent will be an emphasis on local action. Our editorial stance this year is to leverage your local efforts locally for the Presidency (4 years), the Senate (6 years), and redistricting (10 years). This week, we start up the previous […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · House · Princeton · Redistricting · Site News

Moneyball politics: Florida (Part II)

February 9th, 2020, 8:36am by Sam Wang

A few days ago, I wrote about how focused effort in a handful of Florida state legislative districts could lead to outsized consequences lasting for the next decade. Here are those districts – and ways to focus on them.

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · House

Moneyball politics: Florida

February 6th, 2020, 4:51am by Sam Wang

I’m in Florida at an event with Katie Fahey, founder of Voters Not Politicians! Naturally we got to talking about redistricting reform. Here at PEC, we’ve always been looking for ways to maximize the effectiveness of people’s donations and time. That means finding interventions that move probabilities the most, while costing the least. Usually, these […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · House · Politics · Redistricting

Princeton Gerrymandering Project – 2019, in Review

December 31st, 2019, 9:46am by Sam Wang

What a year (and what a decade) it was for gerrymandering. It was also a pivotal year for the Princeton Gerrymandering Project, as we adapted to the next stage of redistricting reform. Even as we have grown, we’re still using law, math, and data to help power change. But we have now made our focus […]

[Read more →]

Tags: House · Princeton · Redistricting

Electoral maps based on 2018 results

November 7th, 2018, 12:28pm by Sam Wang

(revised Friday November 9th to correct an error in Maine Senate) The election turned out approximately as expected from advance information, a narrowly-Democratic House and a Republican Senate. I thought it might be good to look at the results from the perspective of 2020.

[Read more →]

Tags: 2018 Election · House · Senate

Following the returns, 2018

November 6th, 2018, 7:53pm by Sam Wang

Tonight’s liveblogging: A mixed scoreboard for redistricting reform. WINSPA: courts redrew House mapMI, CO, MO: voter initiativesWI: Evers introduces split controlNC: state Supreme Court to act as check LOSSESFL: under DeSantis, single-party control, no court checkGA: if Kemp wins, the same — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) November 7, 2018 1:52am: The gubernatorial races in Wisconsin and […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2018 Election · House

What you’re voting for today

November 6th, 2018, 8:22am by Sam Wang

You’re voting, right? Check your poll location and closing time. And you donated [PEC’s high-leverage picks] [NRSC]. And now, on Election Day, three cheers to those of you who are getting out the vote. Good luck – your country needs you! In addition to the House (final snapshot here) and Senate (final snapshot here, post-Kavanaugh […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2018 Election · House · Senate · U.S. Institutions

House Outlook: Streams Converge

November 5th, 2018, 2:00pm by Sam Wang

As has been the case for months, Democrats are still favored to win the House. But measured in terms of national popular vote, they are only 2 or 3 percentage points above threshold to do so. That’s pretty close…and all of them touch the threshold for control by either side. What makes everyone think the […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2018 Election · House

Why You Should Vote: Red States, Blue Priorities

November 4th, 2018, 9:42am by Sam Wang

(Written in collaboration with Owen Engel ’21.) Progressive policies are more popular than progressive candidates. Red-state candidates who advocate for increases in the minimum wage and Medicaid expansion lose to opponents, who tar them as liberals. Yet surveys show large bipartisan majorities in favor of these same policies. This is a testament to how well […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2018 Election · Health · House · Senate

Why Your Vote Matters: Michigan

November 3rd, 2018, 5:00pm by Sam Wang

It’s not too late to vote absentee! Stop by your local clerk’s office ASAP to request or drop off an absentee ballot. All ballots MUST be in your clerk’s hands by 8 p.m. on Tuesday. https://t.co/IzmzTNvILn — Progress Michigan (@ProgressMich) November 3, 2018 Whether you are progressive, conservative, or independent, there are many reasons to […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2018 Election · House · Politics · Redistricting