Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Nov 03: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3% from toss-up), Senate 53 D, 47 R (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries Tagged as 'House'

Last snapshot, 2020: President, Senate, legislatures

November 3rd, 2020, 5:55pm by Sam Wang

Today’s the last day of voting. In normal years we call it Election Day. This  year, it’s the day when the vote-counting begins. Thanks to all the early voting, polling stations are generally not busy. If you haven’t yet, go vote! Text MYVOTE to 977-79 to find your polling place. Here are some resources for […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · House · Princeton · Redistricting · Senate

Fairer districting in November for one-fourth of all House districts?

October 20th, 2020, 8:23am by Sam Wang

Wherever you are, there are so many reasons to vote. We have resources in the right sidebar. See the PEC 50-State Voter Guide. Also at other sites, see Taniel’s What’s on the Ballot? and Stephen Colbert’s Better Know A Ballot. Today, I have a rundown of all the ways you can make a difference in […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · House · Redistricting

Slow (downticket) train coming

October 6th, 2020, 5:24pm by Sam Wang

In surveys conducted October 1-4, surveys show Biden up by a 10.0 +/- 0.6 percentage points (7 surveys, median +/- estimated SEM). If sustained, that’s a larger popular margin than Obama 2008 (7.3 points) or Clinton 1996 (8.5 points. The last larger win was Reagan 1984 (18.2 points). The Presidential Meta-Margin, on the other hand, […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · House · President · Redistricting · Senate

Alaska, this year’s new swing state?

October 4th, 2020, 9:01am by Zachariah Sippy

Alaska is one of the most interesting states this November’s election. Not only is the state competitive in Presidential, Senate, and U.S. House elections, at the state level Democrats are fighting to retain control of the state House and prevent a Republican trifecta.

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Tags: 2020 Election · House · Moneyball · Politics · President · Senate

Sam on The New Abnormal (again)

October 2nd, 2020, 8:57pm by Sam Wang

Molly Jong-Fast and Rick Wilson had me back on their podcast, The New Abnormal! So pleased that they had me back. Molly is total fun, and so disrespectful. We talked elections of course, with a focus on Moneyball 2020. Many of you are focused on the Senate (which is swinging toward Democrats, thanks to Alaska […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · House · Moneyball · Redistricting · Senate

Before the conventions, a slightly narrowing race

August 19th, 2020, 8:21am by Sam Wang

Can events like the roll-call vote above change public opinion? We’re about to find out – and trends over the last month will make a convention bounce easy to see, since Democrats have been trending slightly downward. Our federal poll trackers use different data streams, yet they seem to be moving together. This happened in […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · House · Politics · President · Senate

Ranked-choice voting gets a hearing in Maine

August 13th, 2020, 8:07am by Sam Wang

Today in Maine, ranked-choice voting will be considered in federal court for the third time. And our team at Princeton has weighed in. In 2018, ranked-choice voting was used for a federal election for the first time anywhere in the United States, in the 2nd Congressional District of Maine. And it made a difference. Minor-party […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House

U.S. House 2020 – November forecast

July 19th, 2020, 11:34am by Sam Wang

We’ve combined the generic-Congressional ballot with special-election data to generate a November forecast. The black trace shows the day-to-day snapshot using generic-Congressional surveys. Data come from FiveThirtyEight filtered using our own median rule. We generated a prior by using special elections since 2018. We combined the two by assuming (a) random drift from the snapshot, […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · House

Election tracking 2020, Part 1: The U.S. House

June 17th, 2020, 3:12pm by Sam Wang

In the coming weeks, PEC will roll out new features and a new design. Most prominent will be an emphasis on local action. Our editorial stance this year is to leverage your local efforts locally for the Presidency (4 years), the Senate (6 years), and redistricting (10 years). This week, we start up the previous […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · House · Princeton · Redistricting · Site News

Moneyball politics: Florida (Part II)

February 9th, 2020, 8:36am by Sam Wang

A few days ago, I wrote about how focused effort in a handful of Florida state legislative districts could lead to outsized consequences lasting for the next decade. Here are those districts – and ways to focus on them.

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Tags: 2020 Election · House