Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries Tagged as 'governors'

Errors Are Inevitable – But Who Will Benefit?

November 4th, 2014, 2:00pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Despite the certainty of pundits, we actually don’t know who will win the Senate! In The New Yorker, I explain. From 2004 to 2012, only thirteen Senate races have had margins of less than three percentage points in the week before the election. Of these, four were won by the trailing candidate. One more, […]

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Tags: 2014 Election · governors · Senate

Geek’s Guide To The Election, 2014 edition

November 4th, 2014, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

Download it! It includes instructions for estimating Delta. Liveblogging will start around 8:00pm. Useful links (will add as day goes on): HuffPollster: Senate Election Live-Tracker. DailyKos Elections, hour-by-hour guide. New York Times, The Upshot, Senate tracker.

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Tags: 2014 Election · governors · Senate

Gubernatorial final snapshots, 2014

November 4th, 2014, 12:54am by Sam Wang

Tweet Here are final polling snapshots for gubernatorial races that are either close or likely to switch party control: Put your own predictions in comments!┬áSome more notes…

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Tags: 2014 Election · governors

Governors: incumbents still at risk

November 1st, 2014, 8:45am by Sam Wang

This year, an unusually high number of incumbents are threatened, both governors (last elected in the wave of 2010*) and senators (last elected in the wave of 2008). Previously, I identified 14 races where party control will change or the incumbent is at serious risk. In the home stretch, many governors have recovered slightly, but […]

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Tags: 2014 Election · governors

Saturday 9am: CNN (Smerconish) and MSNBC (Kornacki)

October 31st, 2014, 9:37pm by Sam Wang

I’ll be on CNN (Smerconish, sometime between 9 and 10) and MSNBC (Up with Steve Kornacki, live between 9 and 9:30). Key point on CNN (watch it here): is this Tuesday’s election an Obama referendum, or an echo of previous wave elections in 2008 and 2010?

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Tags: 2014 Election · governors · Senate

In State Races, As Much Suspense As 2006 and 2010 Combined

October 26th, 2014, 11:21pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Journalists and pundits have lavished considerable attention on the question of who will control the Senate in 2015. But a broader phenomenon has escaped notice: the sheer number of close state-level races, both in the Senate and in statehouses. At risk are many incumbents who were elected in previous wave years: in 2010 for […]

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Tags: 2014 Election · governors · Senate