Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Oct 21: Biden 353 EV (D+5.2% from toss-up), Senate 53 D, 47 R (D+5.1%), House control D+5.0%
Moneyball states: President NV AZ PA, Senate AK MT IA, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries Tagged as 'governors'

Ranked-choice voting wins in court in Maine

August 14th, 2020, 6:11pm by Sam Wang

This afternoon, Judge Lance Walker issued his order in a court case that affects this November’s Senate election. This comes surprisingly fast, just one day after the evidentiary hearing. He finds that plaintiffs, four supporters of Senator Susan Collins, have suffered no constitutional injury from ranked-choice voting. His order gets pretty tart with the plaintiffs, […]

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Tags: governors · Senate

Optimal 2018 donations in the home stretch: Senate, House, Governor

October 26th, 2018, 11:00am by Sam Wang

Judging from my mail, I think some of you think I am back online making predictions. This is not true! PEC provides aggregation and information to reveal where you can make the most impact. Since almost the start, my reason for operating PEC was to show how such efforts might be optimized. And as I wrote […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · governors · House · Redistricting · Senate

Why Your Vote Matters: Wisconsin

October 19th, 2018, 7:43am by Sam Wang

As the election draws near, I’ll write some short essays on why it’s important to vote in specific critical states. Normally at PEC we focus on House and Senate races. But there are tons of important state and local races as well. They’re collected at the PEC Key Races page. Let’s start with Wisconsin. Wisconsin […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · governors · Redistricting

Optimal Donations 2018: Senate and Governor’s races

August 26th, 2018, 4:40pm by Sam Wang

In 2016, I promised to get away from giving you probabilities. Here I show that under current conditions, you can optimize your donations without such calculations. As has been the case in past elections, I’d like to point out key races where supporters of either Democrats or Republicans will get the maximum impact for their […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · governors · House · Redistricting · Senate

Tuesday election trackers

November 6th, 2017, 9:50pm by Sam Wang

The DailyKos Elections tracking spreadsheet is here. The New Jersey governor’s race is a foregone conclusion – the winner should be Phil Murphy (D), which would give Democrats full control of government. Virginia governor’s race looks close: Northam (D) leads Gillespie (R) by 2.5 +/- 0.9 % (median +/- SEM, n=4). It’s closer than expected, […]

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Tags: governors

Partisan Gerrymandering Across the 50 States

July 16th, 2017, 8:49am by Sam Wang

Note: I’ll pretty this up later. In the meantime, the files are available for you to download and inspect at the end of this post. Over at the Associated Press, reporter David Lieb has published a new, in-depth analysis of the effects of gerrymandering in the 2016 Congressional and statehouse elections. The analysis found that […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · 2014 Election · 2016 Election · governors · Redistricting

Arnold Schwarzenegger breaks down gerrymandering

February 22nd, 2017, 10:56am by Sam Wang

Schwarzenegger gives an amusing and substantively sound take on gerrymandering: His solution is a citizens’ commission to take redistricting out of the hands of legislators. As I have analyzed (see page 1296), the California Redistricting Commission has done a good job of creating competitive races where none existed before. A commission-based approach has the advantage […]

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Tags: governors · Redistricting · U.S. Institutions

S.C.: After Haley endorsement, Rubio pulls even with Cruz; pressure on Bush?

February 20th, 2016, 5:43am by Sam Wang

(Guardian coverage) It seems likely that Donald Trump is headed for another win today – but a closer one than I would have expected even a few days ago. In 4 polls taken February 16-19*, the medians are Trump 33%, Rubio 20.5%, Cruz 18.5%, Bush 9.5%, Kasich 8.5%, Carson 6%. Rubio may do even better […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · governors · President

Exceptionally Low Turnout Can Account For Polling Errors

November 10th, 2014, 9:26am by Sam Wang

At The American Prospect: Tweet In the home stretch, I wrote that midterm polling is far less accurate than in Presidential years. Today, in The American Prospect, I detail how this year’s polling errors are correlated with voter turnout, which was the lowest since 1942, as based on Michael McDonald’s tabulation so far. In 2014, […]

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Tags: 2014 Election · governors · Senate

The Midterm Polling Curse (Morning-after edition)

November 5th, 2014, 11:41am by Sam Wang

Pre-election PEC Senate aggregate: 52 Republican seats. Outcome: 52 or more Republican seats (Alaska is not called, and Louisiana goes to a runoff). As I wrote in The New Republic, last night’s performance by the GOP was remarkable. In close Senate races, Republicans outperformed polls by an average of 5.3 percentage points. Prime examples of […]

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Tags: 2014 Election · governors · Senate