Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries Tagged as '2020 Election'

PEC 2020 Liveblog thread #2

November 3rd, 2020, 11:41pm by Sam Wang

New thread. 11:32 pm: Fox has called Arizona for Biden.  So far the reported returns, compared with pre-election polls, appear to be 6% toward Trump (Florida), 3.5% toward Trump (North Carolina), and 0% (New Hampshire). Pretty big errors, though not a pattern that tells us about WI/MI/PA. 11:51 pm: It’s like I said back in […]

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Tags: 2020 Election

PEC 2020 Liveblog thread #1

November 3rd, 2020, 8:01pm by Sam Wang

Under current conditions, watching partial counts come in is like trying to guess someone’s weight as they put different body parts on the scale – but you are not told which part is being measured. Give it time, everyone. This is not a normal election night. — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) November 4, 2020 Live thread […]

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Tags: 2020 Election

Our Electoral Innovation Lab’s Twitter thread

November 3rd, 2020, 7:02pm by Sam Wang

A Twitter thread from the Electoral Innovation Lab team, plus a few people we’ve come to rely on. We’re watching state legislative races and democracy-reform ballot initiatives. Also some trackers:

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Tags: 2020 Election

Last snapshot, 2020: President, Senate, legislatures

November 3rd, 2020, 5:55pm by Sam Wang

Today’s the last day of voting. In normal years we call it Election Day. This  year, it’s the day when the vote-counting begins. Thanks to all the early voting, polling stations are generally not busy. If you haven’t yet, go vote! Text MYVOTE to 977-79 to find your polling place. Here are some resources for […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · House · Princeton · Redistricting · Senate

Politics & Polls #208: Election Day 2020

November 3rd, 2020, 2:06pm by Sam Wang

This morning Julian Zelizer and I went down memory lane…to our 2016 pre-election episode. It was an eye-opener. I talk about elections very differently now. We get into what to look for, what to be concerned about, and how to use polling data without being a passive observer. Take a listen!

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Tags: 2020 Election · Politics · Princeton

Avoiding conflict despite the Electoral College

November 3rd, 2020, 7:41am by Sam Wang

Don’t forget, the states in gold started counting their mail-in votes today or last night!

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

Geek’s Guide 2020, version 2.2 (Monday 10:30pm)

November 2nd, 2020, 10:07am by Sam Wang

Morning, everyone. One day to go. I’m holding at Fauci 2. You? Here’s version 2.2 of the PEC Geek’s Guide To The Election. (doc, PDF) State legislative races have been added. Other useful guides: the PEC 50-State Guide, Taniel’s What’s On The Ballot, and what David Leonhardt is watching. In comments, please post your favorite […]

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Tags: 2020 Election

Redistricting Spitball, Texas style

November 1st, 2020, 3:30pm by Sam Wang

Update, 11/3: The federal judge dismissed the case. The votes will be counted! For Election Day, the Harris County clerk has left one drive-through voting center open, at the Toyota Center. We created Redistricting Moneyball to identify places where votes are exceptionally valuable in their potential to affect Congressional redistricting. The idea was to enhance […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · Redistricting

Can Montana and South Carolina slip off the Presidential coattails?

November 1st, 2020, 9:05am by Sam Wang

In our polarized political age, downticket races are increasingly driven by partisanship. Yet we still pay close attention to individual candidates – in Senate races, Joni Ernst’s inability to name the price of soybeans, or Cal Cunningham’s extramarital affair. Can races be simultaneously nationalized (i.e. track partisan affiliation) and separated from the Presidential race? Here […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Senate

Where are you on the Fauci scale?

October 31st, 2020, 11:00am by Sam Wang

Three days to the election. I’d rate myself between 2 and 3 on the Fauci scale. Somewhat complex feelings, so let’s say 2.5 + √-1. (Thanks to Karen Errichetti for thinking of this excellent graphic.) But seriously, here are my thoughts on what I’m watching on the home stretch. Read it in between phone banking […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · President · Senate