Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Sep 27: Biden 353 EV (D+5.2% from toss-up), Senate 52 D, 48 R (D+3.7%), House control D+3.6%
Moneyball states: President IA NV AZ, Senate MT KS AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries Tagged as '2020 Election'

The mailbag

September 5th, 2020, 7:59am by Sam Wang

Some recent correspondence of interest…

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Tags: 2020 Election

New PEC feature: 50-State Guide to 2020 Elections

September 1st, 2020, 8:00am by Zachariah Sippy

While the Presidential election is hogging most of the attention, there are literally thousands of other races on the ballot. All 435 US House of Representatives seats, and a large Senate class (35 elections) are up for grabs. These races will have a massive impact on legislation and the composition of federal courts. Our 50-state […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Politics · Redistricting

Even odds?

August 31st, 2020, 11:38am by Sam Wang

Betting markets used to favor Biden over Trump. But in the days after the Democratic and Republican conventions, the markets now report 50-50 odds, a toss-up. Is that a realistic assessment? Based on polling metrics alone, the data so far don’t support this shift. It seems that bettors are factoring in “pre-poll” possibilities such as […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

When’s that bounce coming?

August 30th, 2020, 9:20am by Sam Wang

In case anyone is curious, the Presidential state poll aggregator won’t start to show the effects of cumulative post-convention bounce (Democratic plus Republican combined) until surveys are available. Maybe as early as tomorrow, but more likely it will take the whole of the coming week to see it clearly. Luckily there isn’t much news happening. […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

Before the conventions, a slightly narrowing race

August 19th, 2020, 8:21am by Sam Wang

Can events like the roll-call vote above change public opinion? We’re about to find out – and trends over the last month will make a convention bounce easy to see, since Democrats have been trending slightly downward. Our federal poll trackers use different data streams, yet they seem to be moving together. This happened in […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · House · Politics · President · Senate

How hard is it to steal a national election by mail?

August 13th, 2020, 8:09am by Guest Contributor

(This is a guest article by Michael Goldstein of Trenton, New Jersey. I helped too. -Sam) Recent statements by the President – and actions by Postmaster General Louis DeJoy – raise concerns about the integrity of the upcoming Presidential election. In a close election, voter suppression (such as deliberate slowing of the mails) and election […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Politics · President

Redistricting Moneyball – the web event!

August 12th, 2020, 2:41pm by Sam Wang

If you’re coming here because of the NYT article by Thomas Edsall, welcome! Come to our event where we explain what we’re up to. Last week we unveiled “Redistricting Moneyball,”┬áthe Princeton Gerrymandering Project strategy to stop gerrymandering in 2021. On August 12 we had a videoconference to explain the model. We encourage everyone to watch […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · Politics · Redistricting

Politics & Polls #196: Conventions, the Campaign, and #Moneyball2020

August 10th, 2020, 10:30am by Sam Wang

In the current Politics & Polls, Julian Zelizer and I talk about what conventions are good for, and what not having them might mean. We also talk about the downticket, including the new Redistricting Moneyball project. Tune in!

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Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · Politics · Redistricting

What’s more important than a Presidential probability?

August 9th, 2020, 2:21pm by Sam Wang

Presidential models are mainly of interest in close elections, which have been the norm since 2000. This year, Joe Biden occasionally gets within sight of 400 electoral votes, which we haven’t seen since Bill Clinton or George H.W. Bush. In addition, U.S. Senate and state legislative races are of paramount importance. So we’ve spent less […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · President · Redistricting

Sam on The New Abnormal with Molly Jong-Fast and Rick Wilson

August 1st, 2020, 9:19am by Sam Wang

I had a great conversation with Molly Jong-Fast and Rick Wilson on their podcast, The New Abnormal! We talked polls, elections, and Moneyball 2020. Oh, and Senator Tammy Duckworth was the other two-thirds of their show. I guess data analytics are the vegetable course? As a Southern friend of mine says, if there’s nothing green […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · Politics · President · Redistricting · Senate