Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Jul 13: Biden 380 EV (D+6.4% from toss-up), Senate 53 D, 47 R (D+5.6%), House control D+8.0%
Moneyball states: President AK AR IA, Senate MT KS ME, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries Tagged as '2020 Election'

Reanimating… Meta-margin Biden+4.6%, most effective GOTV states NV/AZ/FL/NM/NH/MI/NC

May 24th, 2020, 4:15pm by Sam Wang

Just a quiet Sunday, reanimating some code…minus some problems from 2016. As of today, survey support for Biden is 4.6% above threshold in terms of Electoral College mechanisms. Median snapshot of current polls: Biden 343, Trump 195 EV. Today’s poll-based modal outcome (i.e. the single most probable combination): Here’s what it looks like if just […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

2020 is a close national election, especially for Senate and state legislatures

May 16th, 2020, 11:37pm by Sam Wang

Despite Trump’s low approval numbers, April/May polls indicate a closer race than Obama 2008 or Obama 2012. This is yet again another close Presidential race, same as it’s generally been since 2000. We live in an era of close elections, and 2020 is not yet an exception. (Note that even Obama’s 53%-46% win in 2008 […]

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Tags: 2020 Election

CDC Guidance For Re-opening

May 7th, 2020, 10:33am by Sam Wang

Controversially, the Administration is now pushing the idea of re-opening daily life in the United States. This is a questionable idea, considering the lack of firm standards for doing so. Also, at the beginning of the sheltering order, it was clear that re-opening would require procedures for testing, tracking, and isolation. In most states, those […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · U.S. Institutions

Bernie Sanders’s parting gift to Wisconsin voters

April 11th, 2020, 12:07pm by Sam Wang

When it comes to partisan warfare, Wisconsin is at the top of any list. In 2011, Republicans, with the help of their Governor Scott Walker, committed one of the most egregious gerrymanders of all time. The General Assembly locked itself into power for a decade. Now, thanks to Bernie Sanders’s persistence, Democrats may take a […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Health · Politics · President · Redistricting

Sam on UnPresidented, with Cliff Schecter and John Aravosis

April 7th, 2020, 5:49pm by Sam Wang

Dr. @SamWangPhD in one of the most accessible Coronavirus interviews you’ll listen to. (And we talk the Wisconsin election, gerrymandering, and the brain too!) @UnPresidentPod with @cliffschecter and me.https://t.co/e5dOf2BsNd — John Aravosis 🇺🇸 (@aravosis) April 7, 2020 Today I had a great conversation with Cliff Schecter and John Aravosis on their podcast, UnPresidented. Mostly we […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Politics · President · U.S. Institutions

Fixing Bugs In Democracy: A Conversation with Ellen Weintraub

April 3rd, 2020, 11:55pm by Sam Wang

Here’s the first conversation in our series Fixing Bugs In Democracy. Yesterday, Federal Election Commission member Ellen L. Weintraub. Keep track of future events at election.princeton.edu/events. Coming up: Katie Fahey on Friday, April 10, and Dave Daley on Friday, April 17!

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Tags: 2020 Election · Politics · U.S. Institutions

A Virtual Town Hall with Former FEC Chair Ellen Weintraub

April 2nd, 2020, 1:00am by Indraneel Purohit

Join us! Also, check out the rest of our Fixing Bugs in Democracy series: Katie Fahey, Dave Daley, and more. Lots happening this month at Princeton!

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Tags: 2020 Election · Politics · Redistricting · U.S. Institutions

Re-electability

February 15th, 2020, 12:47am by Sam Wang

A reader asked the following question in comments: Let’s get right to it (aka the $64K question): Who has the BEST chance to beat Trump? Your personal opinion and/or statistically. The answer is that as far as I can tell, basically it doesn’t matter.

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

Sanders v. Buttigieg?

February 11th, 2020, 8:55pm by Sam Wang

The New Hampshire primary is coming in as expected from last week’s polls. Like I said Saturday, past patterns suggest that the most likely nominee will be Sanders or Buttigieg. Based on the fact that the past pattern has only been observed across 9 nomination races, the probability of an exception might be around 1 […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

Moneyball politics: Florida (Part II)

February 9th, 2020, 8:36am by Sam Wang

A few days ago, I wrote about how focused effort in a handful of Florida state legislative districts could lead to outsized consequences lasting for the next decade. Here are those districts – and ways to focus on them.

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Tags: 2020 Election · House