Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Jul 05: Biden 375 EV (D+7.1% from toss-up), Senate 53 D, 47 R (D+5.7%), House control D+6.0%
Moneyball states: President AR IA AZ, Senate MT KS ME, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries Tagged as '2020 Election'

The new generation gives me hope

June 29th, 2020, 7:38pm by Sam Wang

@cowgirlsosakaren vs. liquid courage ♬ original sound – cowgirlsosa

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · Uncategorized

Blue Kentucky Girl

June 25th, 2020, 8:55pm by Sam Wang

(updated to reflect a narrow win by Amy McGrath over Charles Booker in the Democratic primary) Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has made a successful career out of exploiting the rules of government. He is the single greatest architect of changes that move the U.S. away from democracy. But national Democrats and voting rights […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · Senate

Juneteenth

June 19th, 2020, 8:47am by Sam Wang

The Civil War ended in April 1865, but news back then traveled slowly. On June 19, 1865, a Union general in Texas made a public declaration, which grew into the Juneteenth celebration and commemoration, observed by Black Americans starting in the 1880s. Today, Juneteenth is observed in some manner in 49 out of 50 states. As […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · Princeton

It’s alive!

June 19th, 2020, 6:46am by Sam Wang

Detailed explanation to come. Basically, it’s the same as the 2016 calculation – a simple snapshot of polls to give a sharp picture of where the race is on any single day, to allow optimization of resource allocation. The November prediction (red zone, one-sigma; yellow zone, two-sigma or 95% confidence band) comes from estimating the […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · President · Site News

At Labyrinth Books tonight with Dave Daley on Unrigged, his new book on democracy reform

June 18th, 2020, 8:33am by Sam Wang

Tonight at 6:00pm Eastern, I’m looking forward to this conversation with Dave Daley. His new book Unrigged: How Americans Are Battling Back To Save Democracy talks about all the ways that reform is breaking out across the nation. His previous book, Ratf***ed, detailed how partisan gerrymandering was committed in 2010. In Unrigged, he’s broadened his […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · Politics · Redistricting · U.S. Institutions

Election tracking 2020, Part 2: The U.S. Senate

June 17th, 2020, 8:42pm by Sam Wang

Close watchers of politics sense that conditions are turning against Senate Republicans. Exactly when this began has been hard to tell by looking at individual polls. But a statistical aggregate clarifies the answer: the middle of April, at the same time as President Trump’s increasingly wild coronavirus-19 press conferences. The core calculation is to determine […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · Politics · Senate · Site News

Election tracking 2020, Part 1: The U.S. House

June 17th, 2020, 3:12pm by Sam Wang

In the coming weeks, PEC will roll out new features and a new design. Most prominent will be an emphasis on local action. Our editorial stance this year is to leverage your local efforts locally for the Presidency (4 years), the Senate (6 years), and redistricting (10 years). This week, we start up the previous […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · House · Princeton · Redistricting · Site News

Fixing Bugs In Democracy: The Electoral College

June 3rd, 2020, 9:13pm by Sam Wang

Thursday at 6:00pm, I’m pleased to help host the fourth event in our series, Fixing Bugs In Democracy. In our cross-hairs: the Electoral College. That’s right, we are hosting an event for an author who wants to do away with the reason that most people come to this site. It’s a terrific book, full of […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · President

Reanimating… Meta-margin Biden+4.6%, most effective GOTV states NV/AZ/FL/NM/NH/MI/NC

May 24th, 2020, 4:15pm by Sam Wang

Just a quiet Sunday, reanimating some code…minus some problems from 2016. As of today, survey support for Biden is 4.6% above threshold in terms of Electoral College mechanisms. Median snapshot of current polls: Biden 343, Trump 195 EV. Today’s poll-based modal outcome (i.e. the single most probable combination): Here’s what it looks like if just […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · President

2020 is a close national election, especially for Senate and state legislatures

May 16th, 2020, 11:37pm by Sam Wang

Despite Trump’s low approval numbers, April/May polls indicate a closer race than Obama 2008 or Obama 2012. This is yet again another close Presidential race, same as it’s generally been since 2000. We live in an era of close elections, and 2020 is not yet an exception. (Note that even Obama’s 53%-46% win in 2008 […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election