Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Nov 03: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3% from toss-up), Senate 53 D, 47 R (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries Tagged as '2020 Election'

North Carolina’s legislative gerrymander held in 2020

November 22nd, 2020, 9:33pm by Sam Wang

Last year’s redraw of the legislative maps left in a fair bit of the partisanship, especially the state House map. Despite Democrats winning 53% of the statewide vote, Republicans retained control. Facing South reports.

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Tags: 2020 Election · Redistricting

Georgia: send money and letters – but not postcards

November 21st, 2020, 1:31pm by Sam Wang

From the mailbag: Noted the thread from Lara Putnam about the Georgia runoffs. I think​ I understand her point that sending 50 or so postcards to random voters in a state with 5 million voters is pointless and serves only to make the postcarder feel useful. That if you want to do something to actually […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Senate

In the Washington Post

November 12th, 2020, 2:58pm by Sam Wang

In today’s Washington Post, my take on the sources of polling errors in Senate races – and the consequences for resource allocation when we don’t take those errors into account. I have more to say to PEC readers on this, since it was a major feature of what we did. If we knew then what […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Senate

Senate poll error: GOP undecideds came home

November 9th, 2020, 12:14pm by Sam Wang

The polling errors for Senate candidates were quite large this year. In 13 races with final-ish results, the margin of the outcome was a median of 7.9 points more Republican than the last week of polling. That’s an amazingly large difference. In the past, the median error was no more than 3 points or so. […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Senate

North Carolina and Georgia, you’re not done yet!

November 7th, 2020, 10:10am by Sam Wang

The Presidential race is resolved: …however, y’all are not done yet in the South! The importance of the election for redistricting is still unfolding. There’s one more item: the Chief Justice of the North Carolina state Supreme Court. As of today, that race is within a margin of 3,500 votes – 0.06% of the over […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Redistricting · Senate

Presidential Polling Error: slightly smaller than 2016…but in deep Trumpland, larger

November 6th, 2020, 12:17am by Sam Wang

While we wait for the likely conclusion of a Biden win with 306 electoral votes and a 5-6% popular-vote margin… The graph above shows only states which have been called by media organizations, and where the count is >95% complete (results from NYT). For example, California, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania are left out. Things may change. […]

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Tags: 2020 Election

Counting, conflict, and consequences

November 4th, 2020, 10:03am by Sam Wang

Based on traffic stats, the great majority of you arrived in the last few days. We’re living out some likely events I suggested in September. First, mail-in votes are different this year. They are taking a while to count in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Second, given the Trump Administration’s attitude to the law, it matters who […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President · Redistricting · Senate

PEC 2020 Liveblog thread #2

November 3rd, 2020, 11:41pm by Sam Wang

New thread. 11:32 pm: Fox has called Arizona for Biden.  So far the reported returns, compared with pre-election polls, appear to be 6% toward Trump (Florida), 3.5% toward Trump (North Carolina), and 0% (New Hampshire). Pretty big errors, though not a pattern that tells us about WI/MI/PA. 11:51 pm: It’s like I said back in […]

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Tags: 2020 Election

PEC 2020 Liveblog thread #1

November 3rd, 2020, 8:01pm by Sam Wang

Under current conditions, watching partial counts come in is like trying to guess someone’s weight as they put different body parts on the scale – but you are not told which part is being measured. Give it time, everyone. This is not a normal election night. — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) November 4, 2020 Live thread […]

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Tags: 2020 Election

Our Electoral Innovation Lab’s Twitter thread

November 3rd, 2020, 7:02pm by Sam Wang

A Twitter thread from the Electoral Innovation Lab team, plus a few people we’ve come to rely on. We’re watching state legislative races and democracy-reform ballot initiatives. Also some trackers:

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Tags: 2020 Election