Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Jul 14: Biden 376 EV (D+6.0% from toss-up), Senate 53 D, 47 R (D+5.6%), House control D+8.0%
Moneyball states: President AK AR IA, Senate MT KS ME, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries Tagged as '2020 Election'

Will New Jersey Hispanics and Asians have to wait until 2023 for fair representation?

July 9th, 2020, 6:42pm by Sam Wang

Since the 2010 census, Hispanic and Asian populations in New Jersey have increased by 410,000, almost as many people as live in 2 legislative districts (see map at left and our statement). But if Jersey legislators get their way, those communities may have to wait two years until 2023 to see their numbers reflected in […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · Redistricting

Our Polling Trauma

July 8th, 2020, 1:42pm by Sam Wang

Did the 2016 election make us too gun-shy to trust polls? New in the Columbia Journalism Review, I tell what went wrong, polling successes in 2018 and 2019, and what it all means for 2020. I offer an opinion on how journalists could incorporate data into their coverage of this year’s race. I also point […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election

The new generation gives me hope

June 29th, 2020, 7:38pm by Sam Wang

This remarkable bit of TikTok storytelling, after the jump (it’s causing problems on some browsers)…

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · Uncategorized

Blue Kentucky Girl

June 25th, 2020, 8:55pm by Sam Wang

(updated to reflect a narrow win by Amy McGrath over Charles Booker in the Democratic primary) Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has made a successful career out of exploiting the rules of government. He is the single greatest architect of changes that move the U.S. away from democracy. But national Democrats and voting rights […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · Senate

Juneteenth

June 19th, 2020, 8:47am by Sam Wang

The Civil War ended in April 1865, but news back then traveled slowly. On June 19, 1865, a Union general in Texas made a public declaration, which grew┬áinto the Juneteenth celebration and commemoration, observed by Black Americans starting in the 1880s. Today, Juneteenth is observed in some manner in 49 out of 50 states. As […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · Princeton

It’s alive!

June 19th, 2020, 6:46am by Sam Wang

Detailed explanation to come. Basically, it’s the same as the 2016 calculation – a simple snapshot of polls to give a sharp picture of where the race is on any single day, to allow optimization of resource allocation. The November prediction (red zone, one-sigma; yellow zone, two-sigma or 95% confidence band) comes from estimating the […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · President · Site News

At Labyrinth Books tonight with Dave Daley on Unrigged, his new book on democracy reform

June 18th, 2020, 8:33am by Sam Wang

Tonight at 6:00pm Eastern, I’m looking forward to this conversation with Dave Daley. His new book Unrigged: How Americans Are Battling Back To Save Democracy talks about all the ways that reform is breaking out across the nation. His previous book, Ratf***ed, detailed how partisan gerrymandering was committed in 2010. In Unrigged, he’s broadened his […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · Politics · Redistricting · U.S. Institutions

Election tracking 2020, Part 2: The U.S. Senate

June 17th, 2020, 8:42pm by Sam Wang

Close watchers of politics sense that conditions are turning against Senate Republicans. Exactly when this began has been hard to tell by looking at individual polls. But a statistical aggregate clarifies the answer: the middle of April, at the same time as President Trump’s increasingly wild coronavirus-19 press conferences. The core calculation is to determine […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · Politics · Senate · Site News

Election tracking 2020, Part 1: The U.S. House

June 17th, 2020, 3:12pm by Sam Wang

In the coming weeks, PEC will roll out new features and a new design. Most prominent will be an emphasis on local action. Our editorial stance this year is to leverage your local efforts locally for the Presidency (4 years), the Senate (6 years), and redistricting (10 years). This week, we start up the previous […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · House · Princeton · Redistricting · Site News

Fixing Bugs In Democracy: The Electoral College

June 3rd, 2020, 9:13pm by Sam Wang

Thursday at 6:00pm, I’m pleased to help host the fourth event in our series, Fixing Bugs In Democracy. In our cross-hairs: the Electoral College. That’s right, we are hosting an event for an author who wants to do away with the reason that most people come to this site. It’s a terrific book, full of […]

[Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · President