The Economist ran a Graphic (January 5th) purporting to show that in the 2018 election, partisan gerrymandering was overcome by a wave of opinion. However, this is simply not true. In the November Congressional election, Democrats took over the House despite about a dozen seats being safely Republican by nefarious means. I wrote them a […]
Entries Tagged as '2018 Election'
Correcting the Economist: Partisan gerrymandering, still going strong
January 21st, 2019, 9:44pm by Sam Wang
Tags: 2018 Election · Redistricting
Optimal Donations, 2018 (Runoff Edition)
November 24th, 2018, 8:42am by Sam Wang
Election season’s not quite over. We have two high-profile runoffs, one for Georgia Secretary of State and one for Mississippi U.S. Senate. In both cases, no candidate reached 50%, as required by state law there. Both races are highly consequential. Therefore the thermometer at left has been updated. The Georgia Secretary of State race goes […]
Tags: 2018 Election · 2020 Election · Senate
Politics & Polls #114 – Valerie Jarrett
November 8th, 2018, 11:42pm by Sam Wang
Julian Zelizer and I talked with Valerie Jarrett the day after the election. Jarrett was President Barack Obama’s longest-serving policy adviser. She gave her take on political races in Texas, Georgia, and Florida. She also talked about what it was like to do a cameo on The Good Wife, and what it takes to succeed […]
Tags: 2018 Election
Electoral maps based on 2018 results
November 7th, 2018, 12:28pm by Sam Wang
(revised Friday November 9th to correct an error in Maine Senate) The election turned out approximately as expected from advance information, a narrowly-Democratic House and a Republican Senate. I thought it might be good to look at the results from the perspective of 2020.
Tags: 2018 Election · House · Senate
Following the returns, 2018
November 6th, 2018, 7:53pm by Sam Wang
Tonight’s liveblogging: A mixed scoreboard for redistricting reform. WINSPA: courts redrew House mapMI, CO, MO: voter initiativesWI: Evers introduces split controlNC: state Supreme Court to act as check LOSSESFL: under DeSantis, single-party control, no court checkGA: if Kemp wins, the same — Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) November 7, 2018 1:52am: The gubernatorial races in Wisconsin and […]
Tags: 2018 Election · House
What you’re voting for today
November 6th, 2018, 8:22am by Sam Wang
You’re voting, right? Check your poll location and closing time. And you donated [PEC’s high-leverage picks] [NRSC]. And now, on Election Day, three cheers to those of you who are getting out the vote. Good luck – your country needs you! In addition to the House (final snapshot here) and Senate (final snapshot here, post-Kavanaugh […]
Tags: 2018 Election · House · Senate · U.S. Institutions
In late Senate polls, a small signal – or noise?
November 5th, 2018, 8:56pm by Sam Wang
I assume you’ve all been getting out the vote. And donating to one of the organizations in the left sidebar. Maybe you’ve even voted already! OK, now let us take stock of late-breaking developments, which are a little unexpected. All season I’ve thought that Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) wouldn’t come close to unseating Senator Ted Cruz […]
Tags: 2018 Election · Senate
House Outlook: Streams Converge
November 5th, 2018, 2:00pm by Sam Wang
As has been the case for months, Democrats are still favored to win the House. But measured in terms of national popular vote, they are only 2 or 3 percentage points above threshold to do so. That’s pretty close…and all of them touch the threshold for control by either side. What makes everyone think the […]
Tags: 2018 Election · House
Final fundraising
November 4th, 2018, 6:28pm by Sam Wang
A few key races are now outside the critical knife-edge range: Wisconsin governor and a Florida House race. For Democrats, those have been dropped from the ActBlue at left. That list focuses on close Senate and House races where the impact of donations is largest. For Republicans, the NRSC will have a clear idea of […]
Tags: 2018 Election
Two Futures: 45 or 50 Democratic Senate seats…but not in between?
November 4th, 2018, 4:00pm by Sam Wang
Four years ago, I pointed out that close Senate races all tend to fall in the direction of one party or the other. Since then, the idea has stood up pretty well. It implies two very different possible futures. There are a few races I will be watching on Tuesday to figure out which is […]
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