Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Jul 07: Biden 375 EV (D+6.8% from toss-up), Senate 53 D, 47 R (D+5.7%), House control D+6.0%
Moneyball states: President AR IA AZ, Senate MT KS ME, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries Tagged as '2016 Election'

What Actions are Shared to All Fascist Movements?

December 21st, 2016, 3:17pm by Sam Wang

Today’s leisure reading is Robert Paxton’s essay The Five Stages of Fascism (downloadable PDF). It’s a followup to my previous post on Umberto Eco’s essay on fascism. According to Paxton (link to biography), even though fascist movements had varying stated goals, the shared elements lay in what they actually did.

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Tags: 2016 Election · Politics · U.S. Institutions

What data got right in 2016 – and what’s ahead for PEC

December 20th, 2016, 2:25pm by Sam Wang

Harry Enten points out that areas surrounding Ivy League schools voted predominantly for Clinton. He concludes that these are bubbles. I think there is something more in these numbers. Undeniably, academics tilt liberal, as do the communities they live in. However, additional forces were at work in 2016. White college-educated voters swung away from the […]

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Tags: 2016 Election

Podcast #24: A Politics & Polls Home Companion

December 17th, 2016, 3:45pm by Sam Wang

Polarization was a strong undercurrent to the 2016 presidential election, affecting the campaign, voting, and now President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet appointments. In an unusual *live* recording of Politics & Polls, Julian Zelizer and I discuss Trump’s recent appointments, the state of polarization today and how the polls got it wrong in the recent election. Link: […]

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Tags: 2016 Election

Democracy’s Survival, Part I: Action Items for Today

December 16th, 2016, 7:30am by Sam Wang

In today’s NYT, two scholars of authoritarian movements, Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, weigh in. It’s an important article. Readers, recall that my main purpose in running this site was not simply to aggregate polls. I also wanted to help direct efforts and resources. Presidential polls were off (watch my entomophagy, which I made as […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · U.S. Institutions

The Comey effect

December 10th, 2016, 10:06pm by Sam Wang

September 18, 2017: Re-upping it again because of that claim over at The Monkey Cage to the contrary. Nothing new to add, except that it is always possible to cast doubt on a fairly obvious claim if you use a method that makes your error bars large. May 9th, 2017: I am re-upping this because […]

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Tags: 2016 Election

Politics & Polls #23 with Jamelle Bouie on the Democrats’ Response

December 8th, 2016, 9:26am by Sam Wang

Since Donald Trump’s election, there has been considerable debate about what the Democratic party should do next. While some Democrats argue for an openness to cooperation, others insist there isn’t room for compromise given Trump’s views on race and individual rights. In this episode of Politics & Polls, professors Julian Zelizer and Sam Wang interview […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Politics & Polls #22 with Linda Greenhouse: How will a Trump Presidency affect the Supreme Court?

December 4th, 2016, 3:26pm by Sam Wang

A new episode of Politics & Polls: How will a Trump Presidency affect the Supreme Court? And how soon? Julian Zelizer and I talk it over with veteran Supreme Court reporter Linda Greenhouse. Listen!

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Princeton Events – What Happened In The Election?

November 26th, 2016, 2:27pm by Sam Wang

This week at Princeton, I’ll be at two events to discuss what happened in the election, and the uncertain road ahead. Both are open to the public. Monday November 28th, at 7:00pm. At the Princeton Public Library, I’ll join a panel moderated by Stan Katz, and featuring Ruth Mandel and Charles Stile. Thursday December 1st, […]

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Tags: 2016 Election

On CNN around 9:25am Eastern w/Smerconish

November 12th, 2016, 8:12am by Sam Wang

Post-mortem. Plus, I keep my word about the bug.

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Tags: 2016 Election

Politics & Polls #20: What Just Happened?

November 11th, 2016, 2:51pm by Sam Wang

Despite the importance of understanding this week’s cataclysmic events, I have been slow to write. There are other demands, especially my annual national scientific conference, which begins tomorrow. The question of what went wrong in polls – and where I went additionally wrong – is an important one. I owe you a serious assessment, but […]

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Tags: 2016 Election