For his piece on polling in the New York Times, Giovanni Russonello contacted me with questions about what went wrong in my 2016 analysis. Our starting point: my Election Eve estimate that Hillary Clinton’s Meta-Margin of +1.1% led to a 93% probability. The simple answer is that I underestimated the minimum uncertainty in state polls, […]
Entries Tagged as '2016 Election'
Lessons from 2016 and application to 2020
November 24th, 2019, 2:23pm by Sam Wang
Tags: 2016 Election · 2020 Election
Harvard Law School panel on Electoral College
October 19th, 2019, 9:11am by Sam Wang
Great conference today on the Electoral College, hosted by the Harvard Law and Policy Review. An all-star cast – see the schedule! Also livecast here. My slides are available in PDF format here. Some of my marginal notes here.
Tags: 2008 Election · 2016 Election · 2020 Election · President · U.S. Institutions
Mueller Report Book Club: Volume II, Obstruction of Justice, with Quinta Jurecic
May 17th, 2019, 11:39pm by Sam Wang
…and here’s our podcast on Volume II. Our guest is the incomparable Quinta Jurecic, of Lawfareblog.
Tags: 2016 Election · President · U.S. Institutions
Your weekend book club: The Mueller Report
May 10th, 2019, 9:26am by Sam Wang
Been meaning to pick up that Mueller Report, but gotten a little scare of its heft? Wondering what all the fuss is about? Concerned for your democracy? We have the answer for you! In the latest episode of Politics And Polls, Julian Zelizer launch our book club on the Mueller Report. This week we do […]
Tags: 2016 Election · President · Princeton · U.S. Institutions
Two Futures: 45 or 50 Democratic Senate seats…but not in between?
November 4th, 2018, 4:00pm by Sam Wang
Four years ago, I pointed out that close Senate races all tend to fall in the direction of one party or the other. Since then, the idea has stood up pretty well. It implies two very different possible futures. There are a few races I will be watching on Tuesday to figure out which is […]
Tags: 2004 Election · 2006 Elections · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2014 Election · 2016 Election · 2018 Election · Senate
Roy Moore as an ultimate test of the power of partisan loyalty
December 12th, 2017, 9:11pm by Sam Wang
Today’s Alabama special election to replace Senator Luther Strange (R) is of obvious interest for two reasons. First and foremost, since the Senate is now 52 R, 48 D/I. After tonight, it will either stay the same, or become 51 R, 49 D/I. This would adversely affect the legislative ability of an already-dysfunctional Republican Congress. […]
Tags: 2016 Election · Senate
Partisan Gerrymandering Across the 50 States
July 16th, 2017, 8:49am by Sam Wang
Note: I’ll pretty this up later. In the meantime, the files are available for you to download and inspect at the end of this post. Over at the Associated Press, reporter David Lieb has published a new, in-depth analysis of the effects of gerrymandering in the 2016 Congressional and statehouse elections. The analysis found that […]
Tags: 2012 Election · 2014 Election · 2016 Election · governors · Redistricting
Awesome telling of the story of 2016
February 8th, 2017, 8:32pm by Sam Wang
A splendid telling of the story of 2016, by Mike Davis at Jacobin. Davis weaves together unbreakable party loyalty, evangelicals, redistricting and gerrymandering, and the hostile takeover of the Republicans into a coherent tale. I don’t know of a better telling of where we went – and where we may go next. To be continued.
Tags: 2016 Election · President
I’m joining The American Prospect!
January 17th, 2017, 6:52pm by Sam Wang
I’m pleased to announce that I have agreed to join The American Prospect as a contributing editor. As many of you may know, the Prospect has a history of taking on political writers at the start of their careers: Ezra Klein, Matt Yglesias, Josh Marshall, Jamelle Bouie, and others. It is an honor to join […]
Tags: 2016 Election · President
Polarization Removes the Ability to Make Distinctions
January 3rd, 2017, 3:25am by Sam Wang
Tweet Bruce Springsteen has questioned Donald Trump’s competence to be president. His opinion is typical of the majority of Americans. How could voters have elected someone who is so widely seen as unready for the job? One answer is that polarization impairs the inclination of voters to act upon such problems. In a Gallup poll […]
Tags: 2016 Election · President
