Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries Tagged as '2012 Election'

Two Futures: 45 or 50 Democratic Senate seats…but not in between?

November 4th, 2018, 4:00pm by Sam Wang

Four years ago, I pointed out that close Senate races all tend to fall in the direction of one party or the other. Since then, the idea has stood up pretty well. It implies two very different possible futures. There are a few races I will be watching on Tuesday to figure out which is […]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2006 Elections · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2014 Election · 2016 Election · 2018 Election · Senate

Partisan Gerrymandering Across the 50 States

July 16th, 2017, 8:49am by Sam Wang

Note: I’ll pretty this up later. In the meantime, the files are available for you to download and inspect at the end of this post. Over at the Associated Press, reporter David Lieb has published a new, in-depth analysis of the effects of gerrymandering in the 2016 Congressional and statehouse elections. The analysis found that […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · 2014 Election · 2016 Election · governors · Redistricting

The Polarization Hypothesis Passes The “Access Hollywood” Test

October 17th, 2016, 2:03pm by Sam Wang

Tweet *Video surfaces of Donald Trump killing and eating a guy* Trump surrogate on CNN: UM SILENCE OF THE LAMBS WON BEST PICTURE IN 1992 — Aaron Chewning (@AaronChewning) October 12, 2016 Polarization is so strong that other than Debate #1, which moved opinion by about four percentage points, it is looking like no existing […]

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Tags: 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

All The Reasons You Doubt Polls: Motivated Reasoning Strikes Again

October 14th, 2016, 8:00am by Sam Wang

Every Presidential election, it happens. People on the side that is heading for a loss find ways to disbelieve what polls are telling them. This year is no different.

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

Some secrets are not dirty

October 10th, 2016, 9:48am by Sam Wang

Tweet Yesterday, Hillary Clinton’s PEC win probability hit 95%. In last night’s debate, the 2005 candid video of Donald Trump saying what he does with women was still on everyone’s mind. In response, he brought up many topics beloved by Republican rank-and-file voters: Bill Clinton, Benghazi, emails…it was a veritable Greatest Hits of 1996-2016. The likely […]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election

How Should Volatility Be Defined?

October 9th, 2016, 9:00am by Sam Wang

Tweet Several of you point out that my analysis of Presidential races 1952-2016 in The American Prospect appears to conflict with an assertion by Nate Silver about this year’s Presidential race. Yesterday he discussed why he thinks 2016 is a year of high “volatility.” In the piece he says that he is preparing a more detailed […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · 2016 Election

The Hardened Divide: Why Donald Trump Is Mitt Romney Lite

October 7th, 2016, 1:00pm by Sam Wang

Update: Thanks to today’s Washington Post story by David Farenthold about Trump’s lewd comments about what sounds like sexual assault, we may see a test of my thesis that voters are close to immovable. However, I should point out that the Meta-Margin could go to Clinton +7% and still be consistent with my argument. In The […]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · Politics · President

The incredibly stable 2016 campaign

September 29th, 2016, 1:10pm by Sam Wang

Like you, I am waiting for polls to come in. A reminder: the following measures will tend to move together: the Presidential Meta-Margin, the Senate Meta-Margin, the House generic Congressional ballot, and President Obama’s net approval. In the last day, the House and Obama numbers have moved toward Democrats. This year’s Presidential campaign has been […]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

Sharpening the 2016 Presidential Forecast

August 21st, 2016, 2:47am by Sam Wang

Today I present a beta version of the sharpened forecast. In May, I said that I would update the model after the dynamics of this year’s race became clear. Back then, I wondered whether the 2016 campaign would be more like 1952-1992 (high variability), or like 1996-2012 (low variability). This year’s data indicate that it […]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

In state polls, Clinton running 5.8 percentage points ahead of Obama 2012

August 16th, 2016, 5:41pm by Sam Wang

There is a lot of media drooling over polls showing Donald Trump cratering in state after state. I find this gloating to be unseemly. Here at PEC, you can do all your gloating in one go, saving time for other reactions, like schadenfreude. Plotted below are median Clinton-minus-Trump margins in all states for which August […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President