Princeton Election Consortium

A laboratory for electoral innovation

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Entries Tagged as '2008 Election'

The predictive value of GOP Presidential polls

January 5th, 2016, 10:30pm by Sam Wang

Tweet The New Year is not a bad time for a fresh start. So please let me acknowledge that back in July, I was too pessimistic about Donald Trump’s chances. Like Harry Enten, I was led astray by his high unfavorables. Six months into the Season of Trump, I think it is time to examine […]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

A look back at poll aggregation, 2004-2014

May 6th, 2015, 1:11pm by Sam Wang

My article on Presidential poll aggregation is now published, in the International Journal of Forecasting. You can read it here. It’s part of a special issue on Presidential forecasting; when I have the other articles I will link those as well. Read about the origins of a rather odd hobby!

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2006 Elections · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2014 Election

A draft of a paper on the Meta-analysis

October 7th, 2013, 8:27am by Sam Wang

Dear readers, I’ve been invited to write an academic article on the Meta-analysis. I’m horribly late with it…but I do have a draft. I’d be interested in your thoughts and reactions. I’m sure I have not done justice to some important topics. The article text is here (PDF) and the figures are here (6.7 MB […]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · Site News

Environmental lead (Pb) and crime

January 4th, 2013, 6:30pm by Sam Wang

At Mother Jones, Kevin Drum has an in-depth article on the hypothesis that environmental lead  is a likely root cause of the increase in crime a generation ago. Even more importantly, removal of lead from gasoline may be responsible for the decrease in crime in the last few decades. Last night, Kevin and I discussed these ideas […]

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Tags: 2008 Election

Who are these likely voters, anyway?

September 18th, 2012, 10:00am by Sam Wang

After Labor Day, most pollsters start to apply “likely voter screens,” in which they attempt to identify respondents who are not just registered to vote, but who will actually schlep to the polls (or vote by mail) in the election. Many of you have asked what is in these screens, and whether to be suspicious […]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election

Ryan 2012 v. Palin 2008

August 26th, 2012, 7:05am by Sam Wang

An obvious comparison is to ask how Ryan performed compared with Sarah Palin, another running-mate intended to be a game-changer. As you can see, a major advantage of the Meta-analysis is that it allows high-resolution tracking over time. This kind of precision is hard to achieve even with national polls, probably because there are fewer […]

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Tags: 2008 Election · 2012 Election · President

“Forecasts,” snapshots, and predictions, 2012

June 27th, 2012, 2:51pm by Sam Wang

Over at Matt Dickinson’s Presidential Power, there’s a discussion between him, Nate Silver, and others. I weighed in on the confusion between poll snapshots (what all aggregators do, including Nate Silver’s “forecasts”) and true predictions (what political scientists do). Here’s part of what I wrote… Basically, I think the term “prediction” is used too loosely. I’ll […]

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Tags: 2008 Election · 2012 Election

At TEDxSF – Neuroscience and willpower

November 13th, 2009, 1:00pm by Sam Wang

I’ll be coming to San Francisco next Tuesday for TEDxSF, a spinoff of the famous TED conference. It’s at the California Academy of Sciences. Mayor Gavin Newsom will launch the event. The event will be LiveStreamed – tune in around 4:00pm Pacific. I’m on a little after 4:30pm to talk about the neuroscience of willpower. […]

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Tags: 2008 Election

Orly Taitz gets her court date

November 11th, 2009, 2:17pm by Sam Wang

Back on the false-belief beat…sort of. I’ve previously written about false belief formation from the standpoint of neuroscience. A prominent category these days is the delusion, mostly on the right, that President Obama is thought to be hiding something really big. These days it’s his citizenship: “birthers” claim that he is not a Hawaii-born US […]

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Tags: 2008 Election

Senate race re-cap

June 30th, 2009, 10:08pm by Sam Wang

Last year I recommended a donation strategy that nearly 400 of you followed to give nearly $45,000 to one side (and an unknown amount to the other side). Now that Al Franken is finally on his way to being Minnesota’s junior senator (by 312 votes, a 0.01% margin), was it a good strategy?

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Tags: 2008 Election