New Jersey has gotten into the mix with redistricting reform. A constitutional amendment has been introduced to change the rules for how districts will be drawn. Far from being a good-government bill, the proposed legislation is a recipe for volatility – and contains a loophole that would allow either party to commit an extreme gerrymander. […]
Entries Tagged as '2006 Elections'
What New Jersey’s Redistricting Amendment Does – And Doesn’t – Do
December 2nd, 2018, 9:42pm by Sam Wang
Tags: 2006 Elections · Redistricting
Two Futures: 45 or 50 Democratic Senate seats…but not in between?
November 4th, 2018, 4:00pm by Sam Wang
Four years ago, I pointed out that close Senate races all tend to fall in the direction of one party or the other. Since then, the idea has stood up pretty well. It implies two very different possible futures. There are a few races I will be watching on Tuesday to figure out which is […]
Tags: 2004 Election · 2006 Elections · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2014 Election · 2016 Election · 2018 Election · Senate
Data scraping help (thank you!)
March 24th, 2016, 8:43pm by Sam Wang
Anyone care to help me extract some Wisconsin State Assembly results from this database? I am applying this proposed gerrymandering standard to this Common Cause challenge. [contact Sam] (Update: thanks to several readers, Steven Schuster from Colgate and Bror Jonsson here at Princeton, for the help. It’s under control!)
Tags: 2004 Election · 2006 Elections · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2014 Election · 2016 Election
A look back at poll aggregation, 2004-2014
May 6th, 2015, 1:11pm by Sam Wang
My article on Presidential poll aggregation is now published, in the International Journal of Forecasting. You can read it here. It’s part of a special issue on Presidential forecasting; when I have the other articles I will link those as well. Read about the origins of a rather odd hobby!
Tags: 2004 Election · 2006 Elections · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2014 Election
How simple meta-analysis did, 2004-2008
November 17th, 2008, 10:40am by Sam Wang
Here’s a summary performance, starting from 2004, of a meta-analytic approach based purely on available polls. The consistent finding in three elections: simple is best.
Tags: 2004 Election · 2006 Elections · 2008 Election
Assessing the effect of the bounce [currently Obama 324, McCain 214]
September 4th, 2008, 12:19pm by Sam Wang
We are at the end of several very eventful weeks. The finale is, of course, tonight: McCain’s acceptance speech at the Republican convention (and a pre-rebuttal by Obama on The O’Reilly Factor). National polls will come in over the weekend. Here’s a tool to help you interpret them.
Tags: 2006 Elections · Uncategorized
National update: Obama ahead by 5-8%, with a post-convention bounce of 3-4% (and its effect on EV estimate)
September 1st, 2008, 11:24pm by Sam Wang
It’s now possible to examine the Democratic post-convention bounce. I define the bounce as the shift in the Obama-McCain margin as of this weekend compared with after August 21st (the date of McCain’s number-of-houses gaffe and the “Seven” ad). I have four matched comparisons in which an organization polled both soon after the 21st and […]
Tags: 2006 Elections · Site News · Uncategorized
Palin not a hit with undecideds
August 30th, 2008, 9:34pm by Sam Wang
Via Andrew Sullivan: a new Rasmussen poll says that among undecided voters, 6% say it would make them more likely to vote for McCain, 31% said less likely, 49% said no impact, and 15% said not sure. In the same survey, 59% of undecideds said Palin was unready to be president; 6% said she was. […]
Tags: 2006 Elections · Uncategorized
