Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries Tagged as '2006 Elections'

What New Jersey’s Redistricting Amendment Does – And Doesn’t – Do

December 2nd, 2018, 9:42pm by Sam Wang

New Jersey has gotten into the mix with redistricting reform. A constitutional amendment has been introduced to change the rules for how districts will be drawn. Far from being a good-government bill, the proposed legislation is a recipe for volatility – and contains a loophole that would allow either party to commit an extreme gerrymander. […]

[

Tags: 2006 Elections · Redistricting

Two Futures: 45 or 50 Democratic Senate seats…but not in between?

November 4th, 2018, 4:00pm by Sam Wang

Four years ago, I pointed out that close Senate races all tend to fall in the direction of one party or the other. Since then, the idea has stood up pretty well. It implies two very different possible futures. There are a few races I will be watching on Tuesday to figure out which is […]

[

Tags: 2004 Election · 2006 Elections · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2014 Election · 2016 Election · 2018 Election · Senate

Data scraping help (thank you!)

March 24th, 2016, 8:43pm by Sam Wang

Anyone care to help me extract some Wisconsin State Assembly results from this database? I am applying this proposed gerrymandering standard to this Common Cause challenge. [contact Sam] (Update: thanks to several readers, Steven Schuster from Colgate and Bror Jonsson here at Princeton, for the help. It’s under control!)

[

Tags: 2004 Election · 2006 Elections · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2014 Election · 2016 Election

A look back at poll aggregation, 2004-2014

May 6th, 2015, 1:11pm by Sam Wang

My article on Presidential poll aggregation is now published, in the International Journal of Forecasting. You can read it here. It’s part of a special issue on Presidential forecasting; when I have the other articles I will link those as well. Read about the origins of a rather odd hobby!

[

Tags: 2004 Election · 2006 Elections · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2014 Election

How simple meta-analysis did, 2004-2008

November 17th, 2008, 10:40am by Sam Wang

Here’s a summary performance, starting from 2004, of a meta-analytic approach based purely on available polls. The consistent finding in three elections: simple is best.

[

Tags: 2004 Election · 2006 Elections · 2008 Election

Assessing the effect of the bounce [currently Obama 324, McCain 214]

September 4th, 2008, 12:19pm by Sam Wang

We are at the end of several very eventful weeks. The finale is, of course, tonight: McCain’s acceptance speech at the Republican convention (and a pre-rebuttal by Obama on The O’Reilly Factor). National polls will come in over the weekend. Here’s a tool to help you interpret them.

[

Tags: 2006 Elections · Uncategorized

National update: Obama ahead by 5-8%, with a post-convention bounce of 3-4% (and its effect on EV estimate)

September 1st, 2008, 11:24pm by Sam Wang

It’s now possible to examine the Democratic post-convention bounce. I define the bounce as the shift in the Obama-McCain margin as of this weekend compared with after August 21st (the date of McCain’s number-of-houses gaffe and the “Seven” ad). I have four matched comparisons in which an organization polled both soon after the 21st and […]

[

Tags: 2006 Elections · Site News · Uncategorized

Palin not a hit with undecideds

August 30th, 2008, 9:34pm by Sam Wang

Via Andrew Sullivan: a new Rasmussen poll says that among undecided voters, 6% say it would make them more likely to vote for McCain, 31% said less likely, 49% said no impact, and 15% said not sure. In the same survey, 59% of undecideds said Palin was unready to be president; 6% said she was. […]

[

Tags: 2006 Elections · Uncategorized

Why not to want a “prediction”

August 24th, 2008, 6:30am by Sam Wang

Many of you have asked for the snapshot to be extended to make a prediction of what will happen on Election Day. A close look at my Meta-Analysis from 2004 shows the problems in wanting such a thing, and how to gauge the limitations of even the most careful of predictions.

[

Tags: 2006 Elections · 2008 Election

Quick NJ Governor’s Race Calculation

October 11th, 2005, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

In the New Jersey governor’s race, recent polls show the Corzine-Forrester margin as 8% (48-40, Fairleigh-Dickinson, 10/4-9), 2% (47-45, Marist, 10/5-6), 7% (44-37, Star-Ledger, 10/3-6), 9% (43-34, Monmouth, 9/21-26), and 4% (48-44, Quinnipiac, 9/20-25). The average margin is Corzine ahead of Forrester by 6.0 ± 1.3% (mean ± SEM). That puts Corzine 4.6 sigma ahead […]

[

Tags: 2006 Elections · Meta-analysis