Note: I have found a problem with this calculation. The national-poll-based Clinton win probability is closer to 70%. I will have an update and explanation soon. Obama: “Next year someone else will be standing here in this spot, and it’s anyone’s guess who she will be.” #WHCD pic.twitter.com/XVFxZUzKeJ — Huffington Post (@HuffingtonPost) May 1, 2016 … Continue reading What head-to-head election polls tell us about November