Today’s update: Trump median 1285 delegates (IQR: 1239-1320). Probability of a pledged majority is 75%. Despite the usual complaints, primary polls do reasonably well when aggregated. To understand a state, it is far worse to have no polls at all. As the joke goes, “That restaurant’s food is terrible. And such small portions!” Unfortunately, we … Continue reading Two independent ways of predicting GOP primaries lead to highly similar forecasts