[Title edited to reflect the fact that polls are still changing at the last minute, so predictions won’t be final until after the weekend. Notably, Reid/Angle is no longer a tossup. Reid is likely to lose.] As I wrote in 2008, despite the fuss about fancy modeling, for topline estimates, models such as FiveThirtyEight essentially … Continue reading Simple poll-based snapshot: House 230R-205D (+/-1.5), Senate 52D-48R (+/-1)