The Scotland referendum on independence has failed by a margin 10.6%. Why was this margin so unexpectedly large? A few days ago, I pointed out that “No” was ahead of “Aye” by 4.0 ± 1.3 % (5 surveys; 1 sigma uncertainty, p=0.014). Later surveys didn’t change that. It is incontrovertible that the polled demographic was … Continue reading Scotland Referendum Fails, Surpassing Polls