It’s now possible to examine the Democratic post-convention bounce. I define the bounce as the shift in the Obama-McCain margin as of this weekend compared with after August 21st (the date of McCain’s number-of-houses gaffe and the “Seven” ad). I have four matched comparisons in which an organization polled both soon after the 21st and … Continue reading National update: Obama ahead by 5-8%, with a post-convention bounce of 3-4% (and its effect on EV estimate)