How predictive is the Iowa caucus? 2020 edition

(Update, Tuesday February 4th 7:45pm: With Iowa returns finally becoming available, it looks like the top four are the same as what I wrote about below. So this post can be read exactly the same – no modification necessary!) (Pardon the mess – we’re under construction. 2020 content coming soon!) National surveys and the Iowa caucus … Continue reading How predictive is the Iowa caucus? 2020 edition