(original version published on temporary site with comment thread) In the home stretch to Tuesday, undecided voters are claimed to be an unknown that could increase President Obama’s lead – or turn the race around for Governor Romney. But many pundits (and comedians) don’t understand what it means to be “undecided.” Most undecideds probably have a […]
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Where are undecideds falling?
November 2nd, 2012, 4:30pm by Sam Wang
Tags: 2012 Election · President
Nerds under attack!
October 29th, 2012, 10:00am by Sam Wang
Tweet Paul Krugman is calling out National Review Online for their attempted takedown of Nate Silver for biased methods and somehow cooking the books. Krugman writes: This is, of course, reminiscent of the attack on the Bureau of Labor Statistics — not to mention the attacks on climate science and much more. On the right, […]
Tags: 2012 Election · President
Vast liberal conspiracies?
September 26th, 2012, 12:48pm by Sam Wang
(Welcome, readers of IEEE Spectrum! A small group, but enriched for quantitative people. Do not be fooled by the picture. I usually do not glower.) The Popular Vote Meta-Margin just hit 5.0%, its highest value of the campaign. I will briefly address the wishful thinking of Romney supporters, despite its faint whiff of hysteria. Some fantasies […]
Tags: 2012 Election · House · President · Senate
How will the last holdouts break?
November 3rd, 2008, 2:45pm by Sam Wang
The national two-candidate margin is currently Obama leading by 7.0 +/- 0.9% (median+/-SEM, n=7, 10/31-11/2). There are between 1 and 6% “undecideds.” Can they wreak havoc anywhere? Today, Charles Franklin at Pollster.com writes about how undecideds have broken since 1948. These data can give us outer bounds on what may happen this year. Bottom line: […]
Tags: 2008 Election
Covert decisionmaking and the Bradley effect
October 28th, 2008, 11:20am by Sam Wang
Today’s New York Times is a target-rich environment for a brain geek. In addition to my own op-ed on the brains of undecided voters, there’s an op-ed by David Brooks on irrational decision-making in financial markets. All decisions, all the time. And for my second geek, there’s the piece on polling analysis (in which I […]
Tags: 2008 Election
The neuroscience of being “undecided”
October 7th, 2008, 10:30am by Sam Wang
At Pollster.com, Charles Franklin examines this year’s campaign trends. In his data, “undecided” voters make up a similar fraction to the current Obama-McCain polling margin. How many of them are really undecided? Based on psychology and neuroscience research, maybe not many.
Tags: 2008 Election
Obama’s continuing rise, and a criticism from Silver
October 1st, 2008, 12:38pm by Sam Wang
The EV estimator is continuing its sharp rise (now Obama 322 EV, McCain 216 EV). It is catching up with the increase in support for Obama, which has been maintained after the first debate. National polls are now at a median of Obama +5.5 +/- 0.8% (n=12, Sept. 25-30; updated 12:53am). The EV estimator will […]
Tags: 2008 Election · Site News
Red gets redder
September 16th, 2008, 9:53am by Sam Wang
Today on Pollster.com, Charles Franklin has an interesting graph detailing where John McCain’s post-convention bounce occurred. It illuminates why McCain was up by more in national polls (2%) than he appeared to be in the Electoral College (basically a tie).
Tags: 2008 Election
