Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

In Monday’s new apportionment, who will lose, Alabama or New York?

April 24th, 2021, 12:34pm by Sam Wang


On Monday afternoon at 3 p.m., the Commerce Department is expected to release the new apportionment from the 2020 Census. It will be posted here, and there will be a press conference on Census Live. Generally, southwestern states will win Congressional seats; the northeast and California will lose. There’s some uncertainty as to whether Alabama will lose 0 or 1 seat, and whether New York will lose 1 or 2 seats. The Census Project has an explainer. Finally, check out this deep dive into historical trends from CUNY’s Redistricting and You.

Update: And the answer is…neither! There are seven seat changes, the smallest of any year going back to 1910 (leaving out the failed reapportionment of 1920). For an overview see my Tweetstorm. More soon…

Tags: Redistricting

4 Comments so far ↓

  • Ian McDonald

    Hi Sam…I’ve spent some time recently digging into reapportionment. I’m wondering if the weirdly close outcome on the 435th seat (Minnesota v. New York) is going to be challenged, and if so, how soon? I looked up the recent history and only two apportionments had margins like this less than 1000 (1970 and 2000). Do you know of any hive mind on this topic that would know if and how that could proceed? Many thanks…Ian

    PS: Here’s a write up I did on New York and Montana before the announcement today: https://stupefied-khorana-12b069.netlify.app/posts/2021-03-29-new-york-and-house-apportionment-in-2020/

  • Rachel Findley

    Redistricting is the next step after census and reapportionment. What is the best way to seek nonpartisan redistricting–technically, and politically?

  • ArcticStones

    In addition to redistricting, I would say the biggest worry for 2022 is who controls the certification (or non-certification) of state elections.

    It Republicans regain the House in 2022, and hold it in 2024, I cannot imagine the evermore-Trumpist Republican congressional representatives being willing to certify President Biden’s re-election, or the victory of any Democratic presidential candidate.

    In my eyes, the single most depressing development is that 70 percent of Republican voters are convinced the 2020 Presidential Election was stolen.

    Democrats have lost the narrative.

  • Joseph Bland

    @Arctic:

    “Democrats have lost the narrative.”

    You wish. There’s an old saying: “When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.” The Republican Party is too invested to stop digging. The Grand Old Party has become the Grumbling Old Party.

Leave a Comment