Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

PEC 2020 Liveblog thread #2

November 3rd, 2020, 11:41pm by Sam Wang

New thread.

11:32 pm: Fox has called Arizona for Biden. 

So far the reported returns, compared with pre-election polls, appear to be 6% toward Trump (Florida), 3.5% toward Trump (North Carolina), and 0% (New Hampshire). Pretty big errors, though not a pattern that tells us about WI/MI/PA.

11:51 pm: It’s like I said back in September, for the Presidential race we may be stuck waiting for Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. And here we are. Wisconsin will report tomorrow, Michigan Friday maybe tomorrow as well, and Pennsylvania…not sure yet.

11:54 pm: The Ohio Supreme Court is going from 5 R, 2 D to 4 R, 3 D. Jennifer Brunner (D) and Sharon Kennedy (R) won the two races. Potentially adverse for enforcement of the fair districting amendment in Ohio, since the 4-3 majority is of the same party as the legislature and governor.

12:27 am: Florida’s Amendment 3, establishing a top-two all-candidate single primary, has failed. It needed 60% of votes, but only received 57%. This was a somewhat controversial democracy reform. It would have allowed open competition among all candidates. However, it was also said to be potentially detrimental to minority candidates.

But St. Louis has passed approval voting! This is a relatively untested system in which you check off all the candidates you approve of, as many as you want. Then the one with the most votes wins.

12:43 am: The Senate’s looking uncertain. I said before that the middle two-thirds of outcomes is 50-54 seats for Democrats. Ending up in that range is possible, but we won’t know tonight. North Carolina is down to the wire and at least one Georgia seat’s going to a runoff. Democrats could go as low as 48 seats, depending on how NC/MT/ME/GA-regular/GA-special/AK turn out.

1:01 am: That’ll be it for the evening. I’m still keeping an eye on state legislatures and ballot initiatives. Until tomorrow, stay calm and let’s make sure all the votes get counted. Good night!

1:50 am: OK, one more: It’s looking like the Texas House will stay Republican. This is bad for redistricting fairness.

Tags: 2020 Election

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