Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 48 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Princeton Talks

October 22nd, 2020, 11:28pm by Sam Wang

Here at Princeton, we’re experimenting with new ways to create a shared public conversation. Although if it’s not possible to gather in person, the Public Lectures Committee has arranged a new series of short videos, Princeton Talks.

The theme this fall is “The Commons.” What do we share in common, and what does it take to have a unified society? I got to give the first one. Watch it here:

Stay tuned for more episodes from my distinguished colleagues!

Tags: 2020 Election

2 Comments so far ↓

  • Chris

    Hi Sam,

    I’ve been browsing your website for a few election cycles now. As a fan of both politics and statistics, this site is perfect for someone like me. So thank you very much for your site.

    I have a question regarding the Presidential election polling. I’ve been tracking the polls closely for some time now. There was an obvious bump for Biden after the first debate, but subsequent to that there has been a tightening in the race in most of the battleground states. I assume some of that is a regression towards the mean, but I also wonder if some of it has to do with the extensive amount of early voting that is taking place. For instance, if someone has already voted, they would be much less likely to answer a pollster since it would be a waste of their time. And the indication from news sources is that the early voting is trending more towards Biden. And if that’s true and those that have already voted are not answering pollsters to the same percentage as those that haven’t voted yet, isn’t it reasonable to assume that Biden is being under counted in the most recent polls. I wanted to get your thoughts on this. Thank you!

    • 538_Refugee

      A good pollster takes ‘everything’ into account to the best of their ability. I’m sure they are aware of the questions and suppositions here. Established firms have historical data on these types of things. Will this election turn historical norms on their heads? I don’t think anyone knows until after the election. If you click on the map you will get maps of plus/minus 3% to account for that possibility.

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