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Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
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Sam on The New Abnormal (again)

October 2nd, 2020, 8:57pm by Sam Wang

Molly Jong-Fast and Rick Wilson had me back on their podcast, The New Abnormal! So pleased that they had me back. Molly is total fun, and so disrespectful. We talked elections of course, with a focus on Moneyball 2020.

Many of you are focused on the Senate (which is swinging toward Democrats, thanks to Alaska and Kansas), but please pay attention to Redistricting Moneyball as well. Over 90 House seats could come under bipartisan redistricting – that’s more than one-fifth of the chamber, for 10 years. It’s equally important as the Senate. I discussed optimized giving, like we have in the right sidebar.

Take a listen! Stitcher, Apple, and I Heart Radio, a few of many places.

Tags: 2020 Election · House · Moneyball · Redistricting · Senate

6 Comments so far ↓

  • ArcticStones

    Part of the New Abnormal – at least for now – is Covid-19 spreading like wildfire amongst key Republicans.

    Not quite sure where to post this…

    Question 1:
    Senators Mike Lee and Thom Tillis have tested positive. Both are members of the Senate Judiciary Committee. Might this prevent a committee quorum and thus derail or significantly delay the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to SCOTUS?

    Question 2:
    What happens if McConnell shouldsuddenly lose his Senate majority as a result of serious Covid-19 illness or deaths amongst his caucus?

    How might this impact the Lame Duck months and the GOP agenda, including SCOTUS?

    Is it theoretically possible for the Democrats to suddenly find themselves with a Senate majority – and for Chuck Schumer to replace McConnell as Senate Majority Leader?

    • FizGig

      Good questions. Add Senator Ron Johnson to the Covid diagnoses list. What are the probabilities that more will follow? I say that the chances are fairly high.

    • ArcticStones

      Courtesy of political scientist Sarah Binder:

      “Sen Judiciary Comm. rules require a quorum to be “actually” present to conduct business (such as recommending ACB for SCOTUS seat). Related Senate standing rule requires committee quorums to be “physically” present to report measure/matter to full Senate.”

      If Senators Thom Tillis and Mike Lee are quarantining and at best attending virtually, that means only 10 Republican members are physically present. With 22 committee member, that is not enough for a quorum if the Democrats refuse to attend and proceed.

  • paras

    I understand the need for a quorum for the judiciary committee, but I also understand that McConnell can override this requirement.

    Am confused by some statements that the lame duck senate would be constrained, should the Democrats win the Senate majority. I thought that the new senators would be sworn in on January 3rd 2021.

  • Priest

    In the unlikely event that Warnock/Loeffler/Collins gets 50%+1 they would be seated immediately as well.

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