Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from October 31st, 2020

Where are you on the Fauci scale?

October 31st, 2020, 11:00am by Sam Wang

Three days to the election. I’d rate myself between 2 and 3 on the Fauci scale. Somewhat complex feelings, so let’s say 2.5 + √-1. (Thanks to Karen Errichetti for thinking of this excellent graphic.) But seriously, here are my thoughts on what I’m watching on the home stretch. Read it in between phone banking […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · President · Senate

Ten proposals for bettering democracy

October 29th, 2020, 10:46pm by Sam Wang

In this year’s election, voters around the nation will decide on proposals to change how democracy works. At the Fulcrum, Sara Swann gives the rundown on ten of those proposals. We’ve gone into some of them in depth. For example, the Virginia redistricting reform is reviewed over at the Princeton Gerrymandering Project. Broadly, all of […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Redistricting

Behind the curtain at the Fox News Decision Desk

October 29th, 2020, 11:09am by Sam Wang

In 2012, Karl Rove’s bubble was burst when Megyn Kelly strolled down to talk to the race-calling team in the bowels of Fox. In the current Politics & Polls, Julian Zelizer and I talk with the head of their 8-person decision desk, Arnon Mishkin. Lots of great details here, and it left me with more […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Senate

Texas talk with Beto O’Rourke

October 28th, 2020, 11:45pm by Sam Wang

In the latest Fixing Bugs In Democracy, Beto O’Rourke and I dive into his efforts to flip the Texas House to Democrats and bring about bipartisan Congressional redistricting. I followed that up with a second guest, Dave Daley. Dave and I talked about Redistricting Moneyball, as well as a new tech tool for citizens to […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · Redistricting

Redistricting Moneyball – train’s leaving!

October 27th, 2020, 9:35pm by Sam Wang

One week to Election Day. Time’s running out in various ways. For example, if you haven’t mailed your ballot yet, plan to either drop off your ballot or vote on Election Day. You can do it! It’s also time to give one last push to state legislative races.

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Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · Redistricting

The road leads back to you, sweet Georgia

October 26th, 2020, 9:20pm by Sam Wang

As I wrote the other day, federalism itself is on the ballot this year. Two notable events today with the Supreme Court demonstrate that point – and emphasize how important your activism is in shaping which way the nation goes.

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Tags: Redistricting

The Texas downticket, with Beto O’Rourke

October 26th, 2020, 5:00am by Zachariah Sippy

Join us on Tuesday at 5pm eastern for a conversation with former Congressman Beto O’Rourke (D-TX)! In particular we will discuss the Lone Star State, as in the last year, O’Rourke has focused his efforts on flipping the Texas House. After the conversation with O’Rourke, we’ll talk about tools being developed here at Princeton to […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · Politics · Redistricting

Welcome, Drudge readers!

October 24th, 2020, 9:54pm by Sam Wang

Welcome, Drudge Report readers! Take a look around our site. You’ll find no probabilities – but instead, resources to help you be as powerful as possible as an individual citizen. It’s like what I told the AP reporter, whose story on getting away from probabilities is also linked from Drudge.

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Tags: 2020 Election

The future of federalism is on the ballot

October 24th, 2020, 1:21pm by Sam Wang

In our system, states have a measure of independence of the federal government. This is newly important because in many places, state courts have become the best route for protecting voting rights. But that’s in question, as evidenced by a 4-4 Supreme Court ruling last week. However, this is one area where you have a […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Senate · Supreme Court · U.S. Institutions

Redistricting Moneyball: Nebraska!

October 23rd, 2020, 8:59am by Sam Wang

We have an unexpected new Redistricting Moneyball state: Nebraska! The Nebraska legislature will affect the redrawing of Congressional districts, which matters both for the House and also for the Presidency. How’d we figure it out, and how can you help in the final days of the campaign? Analyzing Nebraska was harder than other states. The […]

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Tags: Redistricting