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Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

When’s that bounce coming?

August 30th, 2020, 9:20am by Sam Wang

In case anyone is curious, the Presidential state poll aggregator won’t start to show the effects of cumulative post-convention bounce (Democratic plus Republican combined) until surveys are available. Maybe as early as tomorrow, but more likely it will take the whole of the coming week to see it clearly. Luckily there isn’t much news happening. (Hello Portland and Kenosha!)

In the meantime, take a look at the generic Congressional ballot median, plotted above. It’s updated more frequently than state polls. It’s D+6.8% above threshold for control of the chamber, which is near the top of its range for the 2020 season. Is that a harbinger of movement toward Democrats in the days ahead? We will find out.

Also, welcome, readers of Salon. See the links in the banner to find Moneyball states and races. Then optimize your giving in the right sidebar!

Tags: 2020 Election · President

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