Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from August 31st, 2020

Even odds?

August 31st, 2020, 11:38am by Sam Wang

Betting markets used to favor Biden over Trump. But in the days after the Democratic and Republican conventions, the markets now report 50-50 odds, a toss-up. Is that a realistic assessment? Based on polling metrics alone, the data so far don’t support this shift. It seems that bettors are factoring in “pre-poll” possibilities such as […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

When’s that bounce coming?

August 30th, 2020, 9:20am by Sam Wang

In case anyone is curious, the Presidential state poll aggregator won’t start to show the effects of cumulative post-convention bounce (Democratic plus Republican combined) until surveys are available. Maybe as early as tomorrow, but more likely it will take the whole of the coming week to see it clearly. Luckily there isn’t much news happening. […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

Before the conventions, a slightly narrowing race

August 19th, 2020, 8:21am by Sam Wang

Can events like the roll-call vote above change public opinion? We’re about to find out – and trends over the last month will make a convention bounce easy to see, since Democrats have been trending slightly downward. Our federal poll trackers use different data streams, yet they seem to be moving together. This happened in […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · House · Politics · President · Senate

As Ohio goes, so goes…a fairer map?

August 16th, 2020, 2:50pm by Zachariah Sippy

Since the start of the 20th century, only twice has Ohio failed to support the national Presidential winner (in 1944 and 1960). Thus the common political adage, “as Ohio goes, so goes the nation.” That seems not to be true in 2020, since Ohio is now a few points more Republican than the median electoral […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · Redistricting

Ranked-choice voting wins in court in Maine

August 14th, 2020, 6:11pm by Sam Wang

This afternoon, Judge Lance Walker issued his order in a court case that affects this November’s Senate election. This comes surprisingly fast, just one day after the evidentiary hearing. He finds that plaintiffs, four supporters of Senator Susan Collins, have suffered no constitutional injury from ranked-choice voting. His order gets pretty tart with the plaintiffs, […]

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Tags: governors · Senate

How hard is it to steal a national election by mail?

August 13th, 2020, 8:09am by Guest Contributor

(This guest article from August, by Michael Goldstein, seems relevant now. Elected officials in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania have kept the vote-counting process moving forward in an orderly way. For that we should be grateful. -Sam, 11/5/2020) Recent statements by the President – and actions by Postmaster General Louis DeJoy – raise concerns about the […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Politics · President

Ranked-choice voting gets a hearing in Maine

August 13th, 2020, 8:07am by Sam Wang

Today in Maine, ranked-choice voting will be considered in federal court for the third time. And our team at Princeton has weighed in. In 2018, ranked-choice voting was used for a federal election for the first time anywhere in the United States, in the 2nd Congressional District of Maine. And it made a difference. Minor-party […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House

Redistricting Moneyball – the web event!

August 12th, 2020, 2:41pm by Sam Wang

If you’re coming here because of the NYT article by Thomas Edsall, welcome! Come to our event where we explain what we’re up to. Last week we unveiled “Redistricting Moneyball,” the Princeton Gerrymandering Project strategy to stop gerrymandering in 2021. On August 12 we had a videoconference to explain the model. We encourage everyone to watch […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · Politics · Redistricting

Politics & Polls #196: Conventions, the Campaign, and #Moneyball2020

August 10th, 2020, 10:30am by Sam Wang

In the current Politics & Polls, Julian Zelizer and I talk about what conventions are good for, and what not having them might mean. We also talk about the downticket, including the new Redistricting Moneyball project. Tune in!

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Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · Politics · Redistricting

What’s more important than a Presidential probability?

August 9th, 2020, 2:21pm by Sam Wang

Presidential models are mainly of interest in close elections, which have been the norm since 2000. This year, Joe Biden occasionally gets within sight of 400 electoral votes, which we haven’t seen since Bill Clinton or George H.W. Bush. In addition, U.S. Senate and state legislative races are of paramount importance. So we’ve spent less […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · President · Redistricting