Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from June 29th, 2020

The new generation gives me hope

June 29th, 2020, 7:38pm by Sam Wang

This remarkable bit of TikTok storytelling, after the jump (it’s causing problems on some browsers)…

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Tags: 2020 Election · Uncategorized

Woodrow Wilson’s name removed from policy school

June 27th, 2020, 12:46pm by Sam Wang

Big news here at Princeton: Woodrow Wilson’s name will be removed from our Policy and International School. See President Christopher L. Eisgruber’s announcement here. Wilson is a huge figure in both Princeton and national history. He helped grow Princeton into the institution it is now. As President of the United States, his role in domestic […]

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Tags: Princeton

Blue Kentucky Girl

June 25th, 2020, 8:55pm by Sam Wang

(updated to reflect a narrow win by Amy McGrath over Charles Booker in the Democratic primary) Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has made a successful career out of exploiting the rules of government. He is the single greatest architect of changes that move the U.S. away from democracy. But national Democrats and voting rights […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · Senate

Juneteenth

June 19th, 2020, 8:47am by Sam Wang

The Civil War ended in April 1865, but news back then traveled slowly. On June 19, 1865, a Union general in Texas made a public declaration, which grew┬áinto the Juneteenth celebration and commemoration, observed by Black Americans starting in the 1880s. Today, Juneteenth is observed in some manner in 49 out of 50 states. As […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Princeton

It’s alive! Election tracking 2020, Part 3: The Presidency

June 19th, 2020, 6:46am by Sam Wang

Detailed explanation to come. Basically, it’s the same as the 2016 calculation – a simple snapshot of polls to give a sharp picture of where the race is on any single day, to allow optimization of resource allocation. The November prediction (red zone, one-sigma; yellow zone, two-sigma or 95% confidence band) comes from estimating the […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President · Site News

At Labyrinth Books tonight with Dave Daley on Unrigged, his new book on democracy reform

June 18th, 2020, 8:33am by Sam Wang

Tonight at 6:00pm Eastern, I’m looking forward to this conversation with Dave Daley. His new book Unrigged: How Americans Are Battling Back To Save Democracy talks about all the ways that reform is breaking out across the nation. His previous book, Ratf***ed, detailed how partisan gerrymandering was committed in 2010. In Unrigged, he’s broadened his […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Politics · Redistricting · U.S. Institutions

Election tracking 2020, Part 2: The U.S. Senate

June 17th, 2020, 8:42pm by Sam Wang

Close watchers of politics sense that conditions are turning against Senate Republicans. Exactly when this began has been hard to tell by looking at individual polls. But a statistical aggregate clarifies the answer: the middle of April, at the same time as President Trump’s increasingly wild coronavirus-19 press conferences. The core calculation is to determine […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Politics · Senate · Site News

Election tracking 2020, Part 1: The U.S. House

June 17th, 2020, 3:12pm by Sam Wang

In the coming weeks, PEC will roll out new features and a new design. Most prominent will be an emphasis on local action. Our editorial stance this year is to leverage your local efforts locally for the Presidency (4 years), the Senate (6 years), and redistricting (10 years). This week, we start up the previous […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · House · Princeton · Redistricting · Site News

Authoritarianism in 2020: Checking the checklist

June 4th, 2020, 12:47pm by Sam Wang

August 23: Re-upping this, an advance checklist of what to look for. Also, recently Ruth Ben-Ghiat reviewed how a whole political party was co-opted by an authoritarian-minded outsider. Also, the Republican Party has announced that in lieu of a platform, its position is to support whatever Donald Trump wants to do. January 6, 2021: This […]

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Tags: President · Supreme Court · U.S. Institutions

Fixing Bugs In Democracy: The Electoral College

June 3rd, 2020, 9:13pm by Sam Wang

Thursday at 6:00pm, I’m pleased to help host the fourth event in our series, Fixing Bugs In Democracy. In our cross-hairs: the Electoral College. That’s right, we are hosting an event for an author who wants to do away with the reason that most people come to this site. It’s a terrific book, full of […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President