Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from May 24th, 2020

Reanimating… Meta-margin Biden+4.6%, most effective GOTV states NV/AZ/FL/NM/NH/MI/NC

May 24th, 2020, 4:15pm by Sam Wang

Just a quiet Sunday, reanimating some code…minus some problems from 2016. As of today, survey support for Biden is 4.6% above threshold in terms of Electoral College mechanisms. Median snapshot of current polls: Biden 343, Trump 195 EV. Today’s poll-based modal outcome (i.e. the single most probable combination): Here’s what it looks like if just […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · President

How is South Korea’s re-opening going?

May 19th, 2020, 6:54pm by Sam Wang

TODAY! #SouthKorea‘s handling of #COVID19 offers lessons for other countries: What strategies offer the best results? Join us for a live show of Politics & Polls at 7:30 p.m. ET featuring @julianzelizer @SamWangPhD @AsaphChun. — Woodrow Wilson School (@WilsonSchool) May 19, 2020 South Korea and the United States had their first coronavirus case on […]

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Tags: Redistricting

Steak-umm Bless!

May 18th, 2020, 11:51am by Sam Wang

I was interviewed on the essential topic of Steak-umm’s advocacy for truth and evidence-based policy. Juliana Kaplan at Business Insider reports.

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Tags: Politics · Uncategorized

2020 is a close national election, especially for Senate and state legislatures

May 16th, 2020, 11:37pm by Sam Wang

Despite Trump’s low approval numbers, April/May polls indicate a closer race than Obama 2008 or Obama 2012. This is yet again another close Presidential race, same as it’s generally been since 2000. We live in an era of close elections, and 2020 is not yet an exception. (Note that even Obama’s 53%-46% win in 2008 […]

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Tags: 2020 Election

All Fixing Bugs in Democracy videos are available on YouTube

May 12th, 2020, 4:24pm by Jason

Our Fixing Bugs in Democracy series got off to a great start in April. Now, all three of our videos are available on YouTube. Watch a playlist of our Virtual Town Halls, and subscribe to our YouTube channel.

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Tags: Redistricting

CDC Guidance For Re-opening

May 7th, 2020, 10:33am by Sam Wang

Controversially, the Administration is now pushing the idea of re-opening daily life in the United States. This is a questionable idea, considering the lack of firm standards for doing so. Also, at the beginning of the sheltering order, it was clear that re-opening would require procedures for testing, tracking, and isolation. In most states, those […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · U.S. Institutions