Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from April 19th, 2020

Coronavirus New York state update: switching from Johns Hopkins to NYT data

April 19th, 2020, 9:35pm by Sam Wang

Over the last few days, our doubling-time tracker has showed steady progress toward longer times in nearly every state – except New York. We think we’ve identified a source of inaccuracy: uneven updating at the Johns Hopkins site. They’re excellent, but their data isn’t intended for visual display. So we’re switching to the New York […]

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Tags: Health

Elections, neuroscience…and Bill Nye!

April 19th, 2020, 10:18am by Sam Wang

(photo taken February 6th) I was on with Bill Nye and Corey S. Powell to talk about elections, polls, and neuroscience. It was a lively and fun conversation – take a listen! Topics: the Electoral College, polls, what neuroscientists do for fun, gerrymandering…lots of topics. Those guys move fast!

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Tags: Politics · Princeton · Redistricting

Why did the doubling time accelerate in New York?

April 18th, 2020, 6:18pm by Sam Wang

In the last few days, the doubling time of death has decreased – an apparent acceleration. Why is that? Well…more people are dying now, in particular in New York. It’s not apparent in other states. Could be a backlog of reporting, in which case the doubling time will get back to lengthening soon. For now, […]

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Tags: Redistricting

Fixing Bugs In Democracy: Dave Daley, author of Unrigged

April 17th, 2020, 5:07pm by Sam Wang

Dave Daley’s the Hunter S. Thompson of democracy reform. His reportage is the indispensable resource. First with Ratf***ed, his chronicle of gerrymandering. Now he’s out with Unrigged, his story of how citizens are rising up all over the nation to restore and strengthen democracy. Tune in at 6:00pm Eastern! Click here to watch Dave Daley’s […]

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Tags: Politics · Redistricting · U.S. Institutions

Curve Bent

April 13th, 2020, 1:50pm by Sam Wang

There it is. Time to double the number of deaths, as of today: US 7.2 days, NJ 6.5 days, NY 7.3 days. The number of deaths approximately reflects new infections as of about 2-3 weeks ago. Therefore the number of new infections was doubling every 7 days. Since infection itself lasts about 2 weeks, i.e. an average of 1 week, this […]

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Tags: Health

Bernie Sanders’s parting gift to Wisconsin voters

April 11th, 2020, 12:07pm by Sam Wang

When it comes to partisan warfare, Wisconsin is at the top of any list. In 2011, Republicans, with the help of their Governor Scott Walker, committed one of the most egregious gerrymanders of all time. The General Assembly locked itself into power for a decade. Now, thanks to Bernie Sanders’s persistence, Democrats may take a […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Health · Politics · President · Redistricting

TODAY: Fixing Bugs in Democracy, A Virtual Town Hall with Katie Fahey

April 10th, 2020, 8:34am by Sam Wang

Today we’re pleased to present our latest virtual town hall on problems in our democracy and how to fix them. Professor Julian Zelizer and I talk with Katie Fahey, who launched a movement to change redistricting in Michigan. Our focus: how to organize everywhere – even in today’s weird conditions. To hear the virtual town hall, here’s […]

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Tags: Redistricting

Governor Northam’s chance to improve redistricting reform in Virginia

April 8th, 2020, 10:49am by Aaron Barden

In Virginia, Governor Northam has a chance to add protections for minorities in redistricting reform. This comes thanks to an unusual provision in the legislative process there, the veto session. In November, Virginia voters will vote on a constitutional amendment to give part of the redistricting power to citizens. The Princeton Gerrymandering Project’s one-page summaries […]

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Tags: Redistricting

Sam on UnPresidented, with Cliff Schecter and John Aravosis

April 7th, 2020, 5:49pm by Sam Wang

Dr. @SamWangPhD in one of the most accessible Coronavirus interviews you’ll listen to. (And we talk the Wisconsin election, gerrymandering, and the brain too!) @UnPresidentPod with @cliffschecter and me.https://t.co/e5dOf2BsNd — John Aravosis 🇺🇸 (@aravosis) April 7, 2020 Today I had a great conversation with Cliff Schecter and John Aravosis on their podcast, UnPresidented. Mostly we […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Politics · President · U.S. Institutions

Coronavirus epidemic: The end of the beginning?

April 7th, 2020, 6:30am by Sam Wang

Mathematical models of the disease are useful for state/national-level decisionmaking. But they don’t seem to address what we need as individuals. So Lucas Manning, Ben Deverett, and I calculated some simpler things. Basically, I think we’re at or slightly past the point of maximum personal risk. We just have to shelter for another…month! Yesterday I […]

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Tags: Princeton · Uncategorized