Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Sanders v. Buttigieg?

February 11th, 2020, 8:55pm by Sam Wang

The New Hampshire primary is coming in as expected from last week’s polls. Like I said Saturday, past patterns suggest that the most likely nominee will be Sanders or Buttigieg.

Based on the fact that the past pattern has only been observed across 9 nomination races, the probability of an exception might be around 1 in 10. (It reminds me of what Laplace said about the probability of the sun rising tomorrow – depends on how many times we’ve seen it before. Though in the case of sunrise, there are major logical problems.)

Regarding Bloomberg and Klobuchar: Those are probably transient surges. Recall the life cycle of minor candidates. They rise, they get scrutiny, stories come out, and then they fall again. The whole cycle takes two months.

Bloomberg is due to peak about now. If he can keep up his rise, we’ll find out in the next 1-2 weeks. If New Hampshire is good for Klobuchar, we’ll find that out too.

Tags: 2020 Election · President

3 Comments so far ↓

  • tc

    Now add a key 4th criterion that puts Bernie in a Venn diagram circle of his own (albeit with no precedent this century): movement candidate, which serves to make Bernie essentially a home state candidate in every state, with all the vote getting benefits that go with it. A novel time. Fear of climate collapse should dwarf even fear of Trump. Again, Bernie’s movement and plans for climate are unprecedented and set him apart and ahead. So, couple the predictive and the unprecedented and it all points to Bernie. Is there a state Bernie is expected to lose? Not according to the most well-known model on the matter. Makes sense about any way you slice it.

  • nceladean

    I’m not so sure that Bloomberg’s surge is going to be transient…

    Based on what the party insiders are starting to say, along with Biden’s disastrous finishes in Iowa and NH, his constant stream of gaffes, and his dire inability to raise funds, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we were approaching a “tipping point” where the moderate/center vote and Democratic Party establishment defect en masse and Bloomberg gets anointed the “viable” mainstream/center candidate.

Leave a Comment