Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from January 16th, 2020

Close races taking shape in 2020: Senate control in play?

January 16th, 2020, 8:16pm by Sam Wang

Graphed by Ben Rosenblatt, here are the top 10 most-popular and bottom 10 least-popular Senators, as measured by Morning Consult. Notably, five of the bottom six are up for re-election this November – and all are Republicans. These five races would seem to present some ripe opportunities – potentially enough to switch control of the […]

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Tags: 2020 Election · Senate

The Hofeller documents

January 13th, 2020, 3:23pm by Hope Johnson

All 33,261 of Thomas Hofeller’s documents were made available online last week. The Princeton Gerrymandering Project is taking a close look at the files for lessons on what to do, what not to do, and what’s needed for expert districting, both fair and otherwise. The original archive has been taken down, and alternative mirrors are […]

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Tags: Redistricting

Will Democrats keep their reform promise in Virginia?

January 2nd, 2020, 10:36am by Sam Wang

Last year in Virginia, Democrats and Republicans came together to pass redistricting reform. Now they have to pass it again. But some Democrats appear to be waffling. Today in the Richmond Times-Dispatch, I argue for a way forward. Read on! Also, read our Voter’s Guide To Redistricting Reform in Virginia.

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Tags: Redistricting