Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from November 24th, 2019

Lessons from 2016 and application to 2020

November 24th, 2019, 2:23pm by Sam Wang

For his piece on polling in the New York Times, Giovanni Russonello contacted me with questions about what went wrong in my 2016 analysis. Our starting point: my Election Eve estimate that Hillary Clinton’s Meta-Margin of +1.1% led to a 93% probability. The simple answer is that I underestimated the minimum uncertainty in state polls, […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · 2020 Election

California Redistricting Comes to Princeton

November 12th, 2019, 4:37pm by Sam Wang

This Thursday, the Princeton Gerrymandering Project is co-hosting a town hall, “Ending Gerrymandering with People-Powered Reforms.” We’ll have feature three members of California’s first independent, citizen-led Redistricting Commission. We’ll meet in McCosh Hall, Room 28, from 4 to 5 PM. Our co-hosts are New Jersey’s League of Women Voters and Fair Districts NJ. Helen Kioukis […]

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Tags: Princeton · Redistricting