Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Making Every Vote Count: How Would Electoral College Reform Change Campaigns?

October 7th, 2019, 11:12am by Sam Wang

Today I was on a panel with Steve Clemons of The Hill, Amanda Iovino, and Mark Penn on Electoral College reform. Interesting discussion. It was on C-SPAN Radio, and you can watch the full video here on Facebook Live. It may be broadcast on C-SPAN later.

A later panel had some excellent guests: Jesse Wegman of the New York Times, who has a book on Electoral College reform coming out soon; Norm Ornstein; and Michael Steele, former chair of the Republican National Committee. And Nellie Gorbea, Secretary of State of Rhode Island, spoke.

In the meantime, here are my slides in PDF format.

Tags: President · U.S. Institutions

2 Comments so far ↓

  • Tom Burst

    Thanks for examining that data. One original excuse for the Electoral College was that it could prevent an ill suited person from becoming President. In that respect, the College was an utter failure in 2016. But given that the Senate is controlled by less populated states and getting enough less populated states to vote for a constitutional amendment reducing their power is problematic at best. Perhaps the more populated states should start dividing themselves into smaller states gerrymandered to provide almost exclusively Democratic senators. Under that threat, the less populated state might consider a constitutional amendment that increases the population numbers required for statehood or otherwise restricts the states’ ability to divide in exchange for getting rid of the Electoral College. Presumably someone has already mentioned this, but I have not seen it.

    • Mark F.

      I think that breaking up states is simply not going to happen, especially if they will be gerrymandered for partisan reasons. The Electoral Vote Compact might pass, but you still could have rogue electors deciding a close election. Abolishing the Electoral College via Constitutional Amendment seems almost impossible. 3/4 ths of the states are unlikely to approve.

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