Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from November 4th, 2018

Final fundraising

November 4th, 2018, 6:28pm by Sam Wang

A few key races are now outside the critical knife-edge range: Wisconsin governor and a Florida House race. For Democrats, those have been dropped from the ActBlue at left. That list focuses on close Senate and House races where the impact of donations is largest. For Republicans, the NRSC will have a clear idea of […]

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Tags: 2018 Election

Two Futures: 45 or 50 Democratic Senate seats…but not in between?

November 4th, 2018, 4:00pm by Sam Wang

Four years ago, I pointed out that close Senate races all tend to fall in the direction of one party or the other. Since then, the idea has stood up pretty well. It implies two very different possible futures. There are a few races I will be watching on Tuesday to figure out which is […]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2006 Elections · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2014 Election · 2016 Election · 2018 Election · Senate

Why You Should Vote: Red States, Blue Priorities

November 4th, 2018, 9:42am by Sam Wang

(Written in collaboration with Owen Engel ’21.) Progressive policies are more popular than progressive candidates. Red-state candidates who advocate for increases in the minimum wage and Medicaid expansion lose to opponents, who tar them as liberals. Yet surveys show large bipartisan majorities in favor of these same policies. This is a testament to how well […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · Health · House · Senate

Why Your Vote Matters: Michigan

November 3rd, 2018, 5:00pm by Sam Wang

It’s not too late to vote absentee! Stop by your local clerk’s office ASAP to request or drop off an absentee ballot. All ballots MUST be in your clerk’s hands by 8 p.m. on Tuesday. https://t.co/IzmzTNvILn — Progress Michigan (@ProgressMich) November 3, 2018 Whether you are progressive, conservative, or independent, there are many reasons to […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House · Politics · Redistricting

Making the last push in 2018

November 3rd, 2018, 1:09pm by Sam Wang

For neuroscientists, Election Day is a middling priority when planning conferences. Today starts the annual Society for Neuroscience meeting in San Diego. It’s an incredible outpouring of science and creative effort from close to 30,000 people – most of whom will be far from home. I hope at least they voted! That is the minimal […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House

When The (Gerrymandered) Levee Breaks: North Carolina and Michigan

November 3rd, 2018, 1:01am by Sam Wang

Back in 2013, I wrote about the hidden vulnerability when a party engineers winning districts for itself. This idea is in full force for 2018. Gerrymandered wins may swing back hard, because they often have a mix of Democratic, Republican, and most important, independent (and maybe swingable) voters. This would explain some surprisingly close races in […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House

Senate outlook: 45-50 Democratic/Independent seats (median=47)

November 2nd, 2018, 10:47am by Sam Wang

If systematic polling error is no larger than past midterm elections (median of 3 percentage points, as high as 5 points), control of the Senate appears to be a difficult lift for the Democrats. The polling error would have to be at least 5.0 points (that’s how the Meta-Margin is defined). They have a much […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · Senate

Why Your Vote Matters: In the Midwest, will Republicans lose their grip on power?

November 1st, 2018, 10:43am by Sam Wang

(Written in collaboration with Owen Engel ’21.) Six of the most important gubernatorial elections next week take place in the Midwest: Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, and Illinois. In October polling, Democrats lead in all six races. In four states (Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio), Republicans are at risk of losing sole legislative+gubernatorial control of […]

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Tags: 2018 Election