Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from October 21st, 2018

Why Your Vote Matters: North Carolina

October 21st, 2018, 1:56pm by Sam Wang

Part of a series on Key Elections Near You. One of the most remarkable states in this year’s election is North Carolina. Thanks to a lax state constitution, more than anywhere else in the Union, partisans have had the opportunity in North Carolina to isolate government from voters in a remarkable manner. But in two […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House · Redistricting

Saturday: on CNN with Smerconish, 9:30am Eastern

October 19th, 2018, 8:16pm by Sam Wang

Saturday at 9:30am Eastern on CNN, I joined @smerconish to talk about midterm elections. On my mind, a bug in democracy: this year Democrats could win the popular vote, yet still not retake the House. P.S. We didn’t get to the part about how to repair the bugs. Basically, Democrats are overwhelmingly likely to win […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House · Redistricting

Why Your Vote Matters: Wisconsin

October 19th, 2018, 7:43am by Sam Wang

As the election draws near, I’ll write some short essays on why it’s important to vote in specific critical states. Normally at PEC we focus on House and Senate races. But there are tons of important state and local races as well. They’re collected at the PEC Key Races page. Let’s start with Wisconsin. Wisconsin […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · governors · Redistricting

Triage and Refocus

October 17th, 2018, 11:43pm by Sam Wang

A curious inverse law seems to be at work. As politics gets louder and more extreme, public opinion becomes less volatile. As measured by public opinion, this trend dates to the mid-1990s, when Newt Gingrich led the charge to take control of Congress – a fateful turn in national politics. Fewer voters cross partisan lines […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House · Senate

Ursula’s optimization problem

October 15th, 2018, 11:04am by Sam Wang

Ursula Kwong-Brown, a composer and multimedia artist, had an optimization problem. She’s spent over 10 years in higher education and often had to move several times a year, and sometimes spent time at home with her parents. She’s registered to vote in more districts than she can count! Where to vote? Thankfully, it’s legal to […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · 2020 Election

Supreme Court partisanship comes into full view

October 9th, 2018, 12:07pm by Sam Wang

Kavanaugh’s successful confirmation vote was the closest ever. It’s the culmination of a two-decade trend in all-out partisan warfare, the seeds of which were planted when Gingrich and McConnell swept into power in 1994. It’s now reached a seeming pinnacle with the confirmation of a party insider who was a player in the Starr investigation, […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · Senate · Supreme Court

Three Ways To Maximize Your Power

October 6th, 2018, 3:52pm by Sam Wang

It’s exactly one month to the election. Here are three ways to maximize your power. 1) Students: Figure out the place where your vote matters the most. This site, Make My Vote Matter, figures it out for you. It’s developed by a scientist, Ursula Wong-Brown, and shows you which address has more competitive House/Senate/governor races. […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House · Politics · Senate

Post-Labor Day movement: for Republicans, a Kavanaugh effect?

October 5th, 2018, 9:24am by Sam Wang

We’re off to a late start this year; more balls in the air, especially gerrymandering, and a busy term. The House and Senate calculations are running for 2018, though we’re still polishing the display. The calculations are designed to pick up movement quickly. Here’s something notable: since Labor Day, both indicators show distinct movement, about […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House · Senate · Supreme Court

Local talk: Sam Wang on the road ahead for gerrymandering reform

October 3rd, 2018, 8:30am by Sam Wang

As part of the Center for Information Technology Policy’s lecture series, next Monday, October 8th at 4:30pm, I will speak on “Fixing Bugs in Democracy: The Road Ahead for Gerrymandering Reform.” If you’re in the Princeton area, come hear about how data science can help empower activists and reformers – and terminate gerrymandering. Seminar announcement […]

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Tags: Redistricting