Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from August 30th, 2018

We drew a fairer map for the Virginia legislature – and so can you!

August 30th, 2018, 12:40am by Sam Wang

 A federal court has ordered the Virginia legislature to redraw 33 districts in the eastern part of the state, in order to undo a racial gerrymander. The Princeton Gerrymandering Project is pleased to announce its first open-data project. Ben Williams and Will Adler drew a proposed map for them. Explore it through our interactive […]

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Tags: Redistricting

Optimal Donations 2018: Senate and Governor’s races

August 26th, 2018, 4:40pm by Sam Wang

In 2016, I promised to get away from giving you probabilities. Here I show that under current conditions, you can optimize your donations without such calculations. As has been the case in past elections, I’d like to point out key races where supporters of either Democrats or Republicans will get the maximum impact for their […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · governors · House · Redistricting · Senate

Thomas Hofeller, 1943-2018

August 19th, 2018, 9:59am by Sam Wang

Despite the near-certainty that Democrats will win the national popular vote for House races in November, I still estimate a 10% probability (and other forecasters, up to 25%) that Republicans will retain control. Why? Gerrymandering. More than anyone else, Tom Hofeller was responsible for the modern age of aggressive redistricting. He carried out this program […]

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Tags: House · Politics · Redistricting

The Authoritarian Checklist – John Brennan / Peter Strzok update, August 2018

August 15th, 2018, 3:35pm by Sam Wang

John Brennan’s public service: -CIA station chief in Saudi Arabia -CIA chief of staff -Director of Terrorist Threat Integration Center -Director of National Counter terrorism Center -White House Homeland Security Adviser -CIA director -Briefed three presidents — Philip Rucker (@PhilipRucker) August 15, 2018 I’ve left this topic alone for some time, but we must revisit […]

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Tags: President · U.S. Institutions

OH-12 is ominous for GOP in House…and the Senate

August 7th, 2018, 11:36pm by Sam Wang

At the moment, in the special election in Ohio’s gerrymandered 12th district, Republican Troy Balderson leads Democrat Danny O’Connor by 0.9 percentage point (with 0.6% of the vote going to the Green Party candidate). This is a loss for Democrats, but it’s a 10-point swing from the Clinton-Trump margin in 2016. That’s very much in […]

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Tags: 2018 Election

Optimizing Your Efforts in 2018: Part II, the Senate

August 2nd, 2018, 1:04am by Sam Wang

In 2018, what’s a swing state? In many cases, it’s not the swing states that everyone focused on in 2016. How should you optimize your activism and donations? tl;dr: You can donate via the PEC ActBlue page (if you like Democrats) or the NRSC (if you like Republicans). The reason for the difference from 2016 […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · Senate

Support electoral innovation at Princeton!

August 1st, 2018, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

Here at Princeton, we are building activities to foster electoral innovation. Our mission is to find ways to make U.S. democracy more responsive to citizens through application of data, math, and law. We work in several domains. During election years, one of our major projects is the Princeton Election Consortium. We calculate where individual votes […]

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Tags: Princeton · Redistricting