Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from July 16th, 2018

Stop Partisan Gerrymandering With These Three Weird Tricks

July 16th, 2018, 3:29pm by Sam Wang

When it comes to partisan gerrymandering, the Supreme Court whiffed. The road ahead for federal action is not looking great. However, that doesn’t mean it’s game over, as we reported today in The American Prospect. In fact, there’s considerable hope. We looked into the laws, constitutions, and political landscape in every state where there’s currently […]

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Tags: Redistricting

Optimizing Your Efforts in 2018: Part I, the House

July 14th, 2018, 10:48am by Sam Wang

The odds moderately favor a switch in control of the House of Representatives in 2018. But make no mistake, things could go either way. This November will be a battle of inches. For many of you, the battle’s coming to a district near you. We’re renewing a tool that made its debut two years ago. […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · House

Three advance indicators of the House outcome in 2018

July 11th, 2018, 7:19pm by Sam Wang

Three indicators point, with varying degrees of strength, toward a Democratic takeover of the House in this November’s election. Two of them are the usual suspects: the generic Congressional ballot and special elections. There’s a third one that Harry Enten of CNN has noticed: which side is *not* talking about its internal polls. I’m still […]

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Tags: 2018 Election

Happy Fourth Of July!

July 4th, 2018, 11:40am by Sam Wang

Fun thing for your #July4th BBQ:On your phone, computer or laptop, go to: get your guests to #register to vote!Print forms for people to mail.Turn your BBQ into a voter drive!The midterms are #in123days.#FlipItBlue#FourthofJuly2018 — Steve Marmel (@Marmel) July 4, 2018

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Tags: 2018 Election